• BXS - Oct 16 201420141016
  • DUST - Jan 23 201520150123
  • FOE - Jan 14 201520150114
  • GDX - Jan 23 201520150123
  • GMCR - Dec 01 201420141201
  • HIBB - Sep 08 201420140908
  • HMN - Apr 11 201420140411
  • HSY - Jul 21 201420140721
  • ILMN - Dec 02 201420141202
  • KBE - Jul 21 201420140721
  • KRE - Jul 31 201420140731
  • NVO - Jan 06 201520150106
  • XHB - May 06 201420140506

Active Trades – Short

Active Trades are trade ideas that were previously posted as Trade Setups and have since triggered an entry or occasionally, a trade idea that was first posted directly to the active trades category as offering an objective entry at the time of the initial post. Active Trades might also be listed in one or more of the other trade categories as these categories are not necessarily mutually exclusive. E.g.- An Active Trade that still offers an objective entry might also be categorized under the Trade Setups category. Likewise, an Active Trade with multiple prices targets may have already hit one or more of those initial targets with additional target(s) remaining, thereby falling under both the Active Trades and Completed Categories. Traders should look to make any new entries or add to existing Active Trades objectively, such as a on pullback to a support level during an uptrend or a re-test of a broken trend-line, wedge, or channel pattern.

Jan 232015
GDX 60 minute Jan 22nd

GDX 60 minute Jan 22nd

I'm still expecting a little more downside in GDX at this point. Several potential reversal levels shown here with 20.70 being my preferred correction target, at which point I will most likely have added back all my long exposure to the mining sector if/when we get there. I have placed a sell limit order on my DUST pullback trade just below the aforementioned 13.75 trade (sell limit at 13.67) although I might decide to pull the trigger before then, should I see any developments in the intraday charts that convince me to do so.

Jan 212015
DUST 1 minute pre-market Jan 21st

DUST 1 minute pre-market Jan 21st

The DUST (3x short gold miners) quick bounce/hedging trade idea posted yesterday is currently indicated to gap slightly below yesterday's LOD (low of day). With gold trading higher overnight (largely as a result of the $USD trading lower), the miners (GDX) have been indicated to gap higher throughout the pre-market session although those gains have started to fade since about 8:30am ET.

With DUST currently trading right around the suggested stop (a few cents below yesterday's LOD of 11.21), my plan is to pull my stop and re-enter it after the first 30 - 60 minutes of trading. The shaded areas on the 1-minute chart below show the after-hours & pre-market trades in DUST. As always, employ stop criteria that are commensurate with your own trading style & risk tolerance.

Jan 062015
GMCR daily Jan 6th

GMCR daily Jan 6th

The GMCR (Keurig Green Mountain Inc) short trade has hit the first target, T1 at 127.95, for an 8.5% gain in just under 5 weeks. T3, the final target at 90.55 is my current preferred swing target on this trade as of now but as always, consider booking full or partial profits and/or lowering stops to protect profits if holding out for T2 or T3.

Due to the considerable downside left, assuming this trade reaches the final target, GMCR will remain both an Active Trade as well as a Short Setup as the stock still offers an objective entry. However, price targets on short trades are set just above support level where a reaction (bounce or consolidation) are likely. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for GMCR to break below the 124 level before re-shorting (if covering here), initiating (a new short position) or adding to an existing short position.

click here to view the live, annotated chart of GMCR

Jan 062015
NVO daily Jan 6th

NVO daily Jan 6th

NVO (Novo Nordisk, A/S) offers an objective short entry on this break below the 42ish support level, which also follows the recent breakdown & successful backtest of this large bearish rising wedge pattern (which was defined by the primary uptrend line generated off of the Oct 2011 lows). A more conservative entry would be to wait for either a large move below or a solid close below the 42ish support level.

Suggested stops based on a 3:1 or better R/R to one's preferred price target. e.g: Assuming an entry around the current price of 41.95, those targeting the final target, T3 at 35.80 might consider a stop around the 44 level (41.95 entry - 35.80 target = $6.15 profit; $6.15 / 3 = $2.05; entry price of 41.95 + 2.05 = 44.00 stop loss).

click here to view the live chart of NVO

Dec 022014

ILMN (Illumina Inc) offers an aggressive short entry while near the top of this large rising wedge pattern with a more conservative/conventional entry or add-on to come on a break below the bottom of the wedge. Suggested stops based on a 3:1 R/R to one's preferred target(s). Barring a large gap down, ILMN will be added as an Active Long Trade at the open tomorrow.

The large rising wedge pattern on the daily (first) chart below can also been viewed on the weekly (second) chart along with the percentage drops that followed all other similar weekly divergent tops over the last decade (39-68% corrections). Two of those three previous corrections bear markets in ILMN occurred while the US broad markets were solidly entrenched in bull markets (2006 & 2011), highlighting the fact that money can be made shorting the right stocks at the right time in a bull market. My plan for this trade is to take a fractional position here near the top of the pattern, adding to the position if & when prices break below the bottom of the wedge although I may also decide to cover my position on the initial tag of the uptrend line (then shorting a full position on a break below the pattern).

Of course the markets are dynamic and as such, so are my trading plans. T2 at 136.10, which is set just above the 134 horizontal, is the current preferred swing target at this time. Should prices ultimately make a solid break below the 127 support level (not drawn on this chart), especially if the broad market were to be in a confirmed downtrend at the time, the chances would be good for a back-fill of the thin zone that runs from 134 down to the 86 level.

Dec 012014
GMCR daily Dec 1st

GMCR daily Dec 1st

GMCR (Keurig Green Mountain Inc) offers an objective short entry here around the 140 level following the recent long-term uptrend line break & the more recent bear-flagging price action. T3 is both the current preferred & final target at this time. Suggested stop over 155 or lower (if only targeting T1 or T2).

GMCR was added as a short trade setup on Sept 25th with an pending entry based on a break below the 125.35 level. The stock has remained above that level since then but just recently went on to breakdown below the 2+ year primary uptrend line and has set up in what appears to be a bear flag pattern over the last several trading session. With the GMCR appearing to break down from that flag pattern (best viewed on the 60 minute time frame) by moving impulsive lower today, the stock offers an objective short entry around current levels. Please note that the price targets have been modified since the previous short entry was posted a couple of months ago. Updated daily chart shown.

Click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of GMCR.