• AA - Sep 22 201420140922
  • AON - Jul 25 201420140725
  • AXP - Jul 25 201420140725
  • BC - Apr 14 201420140414
  • BWS - Mar 24 201420140324
  • BXS - Aug 01 201420140801
  • COST - Jan 10 201420140110
  • CVX - Jan 13 201420140113
  • EVR - May 07 201420140507
  • FISV - Aug 07 201420140807
  • FRC - Jul 31 201420140731
  • GS - Jan 14 201420140114
  • HAIN - Jul 21 201420140721
  • HIBB - Sep 08 201420140908
  • HMN - Apr 11 201420140411
  • HSNI - Jan 21 201420140121
  • HSY - Jul 21 201420140721
  • KATE - Aug 12 201420140812
  • KBE - Jul 21 201420140721
  • KRE - Jul 31 201420140731
  • LNKD - Apr 07 201420140407
  • LYV - Aug 06 201420140806
  • PNC - Jul 17 201420140717
  • TASR - Jun 02 201420140602
  • TJX - Jul 02 201420140702
  • XHB - May 06 201420140506

Active Trades – Short

Active Trades are trade ideas that were previously posted as Trade Setups and have since triggered an entry or occasionally, a trade idea that was first posted directly to the active trades category as offering an objective entry at the time of the initial post. Active Trades might also be listed in one or more of the other trade categories as these categories are not necessarily mutually exclusive. E.g.- An Active Trade that still offers an objective entry might also be categorized under the Trade Setups category. Likewise, an Active Trade with multiple prices targets may have already hit one or more of those initial targets with additional target(s) remaining, thereby falling under both the Active Trades and Completed Categories. Traders should look to make any new entries or add to existing Active Trades objectively, such as a on pullback to a support level during an uptrend or a re-test of a broken trend-line, wedge, or channel pattern.

Sep 222014
AA daily Sept 22nd

AA daily Sept 22nd

AA (Alcoa Inc), which was added directly as an Active Short Trade a week ago today, has broken below what appears to be a bear flag pattern. Bear flags are continuation patterns with a projected measured move roughly equal to the length of the flagpole (i.e.- the sharp move down from the recent highs leading up to the pattern).

This updated daily chart also lists the suggested buy-to-cover levels, T1 at 15.23 & T2 at 14.05. The suggested target levels on short trades are placed slight above the actual resistance/expected bounce levels in order to minimize missing a fill, should the stock reverse just shy of the actual resistance level.  A link to the live, annotated daily chart of AA may now also be viewed by clicking here.

Sep 152014

AA (Alcoa Inc.) will be added directly as an Active Short Trade here around the 16.62 level following the breakdown of this very steep, nearly 12 month old uptrend line. Targets are shown as T1 & T2 on this daily chart and the exact suggested buy-to-cover levels & stops will follow soon. To add to the case for a reversal in the steep advance in AA over the last year would be the fact that the Dow Jones US Aluminum Index ($DJUSAL) has run into the bottom of a significant long-term resistance zone while at rarely seen overbought levels that have historically preceded major tops in aluminum prices.

Sep 082014

HIBB daily Sept 8thThe HIBB (Hibbett Sports Inc) short trade hit the first target today for a 13% gain. HIBB came within 3 cents of hitting the first target, T1 at 43.48, exactly one month ago today before making a failed attempt to backfill the large gap and although it took a bit longer than I had expected, the first target was finally reached today. Consider booking partial or full profits and/or lowering stops, depending on your trading plan. T2 (40.35) remains the final target.

click here to view the live, annotated chart of HIBB

Note: New trade ideas and market updated have been far & few between lately. This is a reflection of both my own trading activity, or more accurately the lack thereof, as well as the fact that I’m just not finding many very attractive long setups with solid R/R profile. Although I do have a considerable watchlist of short trade ideas, the current uptrend in the broad market without any clear short-term bearish pattern formations dampens the R/R on even the best looking short patterns. I’m waiting for some half-decent signs of a likely reverse or even a short-term sell signal in the broad markets before taking on any more short exposure although I may take a shot at an APPL short, should I fail to be impressed with their latest product announcements tomorrow as a bearish technical case for the stock has recently been outlined.

Aug 122014
KATE daily Aug 12th

KATE daily Aug 12th

My apologies for the late update to anyone in the KATE (Kate Spade & Company) Active Short Trade. KATE was posted as a short trade idea on July 29th with an entry to be taken at the open on July 30th, which occurred at a price of 38.91. At the time I had noted that KATE was scheduled to report earnings on Aug 14th although either the source of that information (Nasdaq.com) was wrong or KATE moved up their earnings release and conference call to before the open today. However, that is not what I wanted to apologize about because either one took the trade on July 30th, knowing that it would be an “earnings play” (meaning that you’d almost certainly have to hold it thru earnings in order to hit one or both profit targets due to the close proximity of entry to the scheduled earnings date), or passed, not wanting to risk a positive reaction to KATE’s earnings & guidance trumping the bearish technicals on the stock.

What I regret is not updating this trade earlier today when I noticed the large price swings following the open. I had received an email from someone mentioning KATE this morning mentioning the fact that it had exceeded my suggested stop of 41.10.  With the stock coincidentally opening exactly at 41.10 today & then moving higher immediately thereafter I figured that the trade exceeded the suggested stop and that I would post that it was stopped out and remove it from the Active Trades category with the next batch of stopped out trades as soon as I got around to updating the stopped out or otherwise removed trades.

In hindsight I should have referenced my notes at the time and posted an update to the KATE trade earlier today. In this original/previous post on KATE, I had stated that 41.10 could be used as a relatively tight stop but that suggested stops, namely the suggested stop for my previously stated preferred target of T2 at 27.55, would follow. Using the typically R/R of 3:1, an idea stop area based on the entry price of 38.91 and the preferred price target of 27.55 would be 42.70. KATE peaked at a high of 42.87 shortly after the open as soon as the initial order imbalances were absorbed, still within the margin of error for a 3:1 R/R, especially considering the post-opening ordering imbalances that took the stock there.

In the past I have often mentioned my preferred strategy when caught on the wrong side of a gap and KATE was one of those times where that strategy worked today. By waiting for the initial surge of buying & short-covering to subside, this trade went from a potential loss to hit & even well exceed the first profit target today. Again, had I bothered to check my notes, I would have posted this earlier today vs. after the close as I’m catching up on things.

One final note for those still short KATE; I have revised T2 from 27.55 to 27.65 (10 cents higher) as the stock is now very oversold in the near-term and as such, the odds of a reversal before the actually support level (around 27.43) are increased substantially, especially if the stock continues to fall this week.     click here to view the live, annotated chart of KATE

Aug 082014
HIBB daily Aug 8th

HIBB daily Aug 8th

HIBB (Hibbett Sports Inc) gapped down 12.5% at the open today and came within a mere 3 cents of the first profit target, T1 at 43.48. Chances are that target will be hit next week so consider booking partial or full profits and/or lowering stops, depending on your trading plan. T2 remains the final target

Aug 072014

FISV (Fiserv Inc) was added as both an Active Short Trade as well as a Short Setup near the top of its bearish rising wedge pattern in this post on July 23rd. As expected, the stock moved lower from that point and has recently been tapping on the bottom of the wedge pattern, which is also the bottom of this much larger ascending price channel as viewed on the weekly chart below. I wanted to point this out as a break below that multi-year uptrend line (bottom of the wedge & the price channel) will trigger the next entry on what I feel is one of the better looking swing short trade ideas at this time. Remember, I can’t give specific price trigger levels on breakouts above/below trendlines as the price level of a trendline changes every day (only horizontal support & resistance levels are static). Therefore, it is best replicate the trendline on your own chart and set a price alert for a break below the trendline, assuming that you are interested in this or any trade idea using a trendline break as the entry criteria.

click here to view the live daily chart of FISV          click here to view the live weekly chart of FISV


Aug 062014
LYV daily Aug 6th

LYV daily Aug 6th

LYV (Live Nation Entertainment) was posted as a Short Setup on July 29 & went on to trigger an entry on a solid break below the uptrend line two days later on July 31st. The stock gapped down the next trading session to hit the first target of 21.62 for a gain of 8.0%. As expected, the stock has experienced a reaction by pausing or consolidating around the T1 level since then and has started moving lower today. T2 at 20.14 is my current preferred target for this trade and with prices starting to move below that first target level today, I do think LVY has a good shot of getting there soon.

Looking at the chart I would expect a decent reaction off the T2 level, especially if we get there soon. At this point consider one of two stop options: A more conservative stop just above the bottom of Friday’s gap, around 22.40 or a more liberal stop above the top of the gap, around 23.20. The latter, more liberal stop would only make sense for those that took the entire position on the initial trendline break as that would assure at least a breakeven on the trade but a loss for anyone who waited until after the earnings induced gap to initiate a position.

click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of LYV