• AON - Jul 25 201420140725
  • AXP - Jul 25 201420140725
  • BC - Apr 14 201420140414
  • BWS - Mar 24 201420140324
  • BXS - Aug 01 201420140801
  • COST - Jan 10 201420140110
  • CVX - Jan 13 201420140113
  • EVR - May 07 201420140507
  • FISV - Aug 07 201420140807
  • FRC - Jul 31 201420140731
  • GS - Jan 14 201420140114
  • HAIN - Jul 21 201420140721
  • HIBB - Aug 08 201420140808
  • HMN - Apr 11 201420140411
  • HSNI - Jan 21 201420140121
  • HSY - Jul 21 201420140721
  • KATE - Aug 12 201420140812
  • KBE - Jul 21 201420140721
  • KRE - Jul 31 201420140731
  • LNKD - Apr 07 201420140407
  • LYV - Aug 06 201420140806
  • PNC - Jul 17 201420140717
  • TASR - Jun 02 201420140602
  • TJX - Jul 02 201420140702
  • XHB - May 06 201420140506


Active Trades – Short

Active Trades are trade ideas that were previously posted as Trade Setups and have since triggered an entry or occasionally, a trade idea that was first posted directly to the active trades category as offering an objective entry at the time of the initial post. Active Trades might also be listed in one or more of the other trade categories as these categories are not necessarily mutually exclusive. E.g.- An Active Trade that still offers an objective entry might also be categorized under the Trade Setups category. Likewise, an Active Trade with multiple prices targets may have already hit one or more of those initial targets with additional target(s) remaining, thereby falling under both the Active Trades and Completed Categories. Traders should look to make any new entries or add to existing Active Trades objectively, such as a on pullback to a support level during an uptrend or a re-test of a broken trend-line, wedge, or channel pattern.

Aug 122014
 
KATE daily Aug 12th

KATE daily Aug 12th

My apologies for the late update to anyone in the KATE (Kate Spade & Company) Active Short Trade. KATE was posted as a short trade idea on July 29th with an entry to be taken at the open on July 30th, which occurred at a price of 38.91. At the time I had noted that KATE was scheduled to report earnings on Aug 14th although either the source of that information (Nasdaq.com) was wrong or KATE moved up their earnings release and conference call to before the open today. However, that is not what I wanted to apologize about because either one took the trade on July 30th, knowing that it would be an “earnings play” (meaning that you’d almost certainly have to hold it thru earnings in order to hit one or both profit targets due to the close proximity of entry to the scheduled earnings date), or passed, not wanting to risk a positive reaction to KATE’s earnings & guidance trumping the bearish technicals on the stock.

What I regret is not updating this trade earlier today when I noticed the large price swings following the open. I had received an email from someone mentioning KATE this morning mentioning the fact that it had exceeded my suggested stop of 41.10.  With the stock coincidentally opening exactly at 41.10 today & then moving higher immediately thereafter I figured that the trade exceeded the suggested stop and that I would post that it was stopped out and remove it from the Active Trades category with the next batch of stopped out trades as soon as I got around to updating the stopped out or otherwise removed trades.

In hindsight I should have referenced my notes at the time and posted an update to the KATE trade earlier today. In this original/previous post on KATE, I had stated that 41.10 could be used as a relatively tight stop but that suggested stops, namely the suggested stop for my previously stated preferred target of T2 at 27.55, would follow. Using the typically R/R of 3:1, an idea stop area based on the entry price of 38.91 and the preferred price target of 27.55 would be 42.70. KATE peaked at a high of 42.87 shortly after the open as soon as the initial order imbalances were absorbed, still within the margin of error for a 3:1 R/R, especially considering the post-opening ordering imbalances that took the stock there.

In the past I have often mentioned my preferred strategy when caught on the wrong side of a gap and KATE was one of those times where that strategy worked today. By waiting for the initial surge of buying & short-covering to subside, this trade went from a potential loss to hit & even well exceed the first profit target today. Again, had I bothered to check my notes, I would have posted this earlier today vs. after the close as I’m catching up on things.

One final note for those still short KATE; I have revised T2 from 27.55 to 27.65 (10 cents higher) as the stock is now very oversold in the near-term and as such, the odds of a reversal before the actually support level (around 27.43) are increased substantially, especially if the stock continues to fall this week.     click here to view the live, annotated chart of KATE

Aug 082014
 
HIBB daily Aug 8th

HIBB daily Aug 8th

HIBB (Hibbett Sports Inc) gapped down 12.5% at the open today and came within a mere 3 cents of the first profit target, T1 at 43.48. Chances are that target will be hit next week so consider booking partial or full profits and/or lowering stops, depending on your trading plan. T2 remains the final target

Aug 072014
 

FISV (Fiserv Inc) was added as both an Active Short Trade as well as a Short Setup near the top of its bearish rising wedge pattern in this post on July 23rd. As expected, the stock moved lower from that point and has recently been tapping on the bottom of the wedge pattern, which is also the bottom of this much larger ascending price channel as viewed on the weekly chart below. I wanted to point this out as a break below that multi-year uptrend line (bottom of the wedge & the price channel) will trigger the next entry on what I feel is one of the better looking swing short trade ideas at this time. Remember, I can’t give specific price trigger levels on breakouts above/below trendlines as the price level of a trendline changes every day (only horizontal support & resistance levels are static). Therefore, it is best replicate the trendline on your own chart and set a price alert for a break below the trendline, assuming that you are interested in this or any trade idea using a trendline break as the entry criteria.

click here to view the live daily chart of FISV          click here to view the live weekly chart of FISV

 

Aug 062014
 
LYV daily Aug 6th

LYV daily Aug 6th

LYV (Live Nation Entertainment) was posted as a Short Setup on July 29 & went on to trigger an entry on a solid break below the uptrend line two days later on July 31st. The stock gapped down the next trading session to hit the first target of 21.62 for a gain of 8.0%. As expected, the stock has experienced a reaction by pausing or consolidating around the T1 level since then and has started moving lower today. T2 at 20.14 is my current preferred target for this trade and with prices starting to move below that first target level today, I do think LVY has a good shot of getting there soon.

Looking at the chart I would expect a decent reaction off the T2 level, especially if we get there soon. At this point consider one of two stop options: A more conservative stop just above the bottom of Friday’s gap, around 22.40 or a more liberal stop above the top of the gap, around 23.20. The latter, more liberal stop would only make sense for those that took the entire position on the initial trendline break as that would assure at least a breakeven on the trade but a loss for anyone who waited until after the earnings induced gap to initiate a position.

click here to view the live, annotated daily chart of LYV

Aug 012014
 
BXS daily Aug 1st

BXS First Profit Target Hit

The BXS (Bancorpsouth Inc) Active Short Trade hit the first profit target, T1 at 20.54, today for a 12.8% gain since the original entry on July 17th. T3 at 18.30 remains the final target for now although each trader should decide whether or not to book partial or full profits as any of the near-term targets are hit, depending on their own unique trading style, risk tolerance and time frame. Typically, reactions are common upon the initial tag of each target level.

 click here to view the live, annotated chart of BXS

When taken in context of the intermediate & long-term time frame, short trades are still considered counter-trend trades at this time. As such, the risk of many of the recent short trades making a lasting reversal at any of the initial price targets is certainly something to consider. Based on my interpretation of the charts, especially the bearish case that I’ve been outlining in the financial sector for weeks now, my preference at this time is to refrain from booking any quick profits, instead riding out any short-term counter-trend bounces until/unless the overall technical picture convinces me otherwise.

On a final note; at times when the market is moving fast, it is not uncommon that I get a dozen or more price alerts of trade setups triggering entries as well as active trades reaching profit targets. An update to every single trade idea on RSOTC is always posted, winners and losers, in order to archive each trade for both accountability (track record) as well as an educational resource to be able to reference past trading history and price action on specific stocks, ETFs, chart patterns, etc… However, during times of rapid price movements or periods when I’m away from my desk or preoccupied with other trading or non-trading issues, notifications of breakouts and trades reaching a price target are not immediately published.

All trade ideas list specific entry (long/short triggers) and exit (profit targets) levels and during times of increased volatility or price movement, there will often be considerable delays in updating trade setups that have triggered an entry or active trades that have hit price targets. As these entry & exit levels are clearly defined in advance, it is imperative that each trader sets price/trendine alerts and/or buy/sell stops or limit orders to automatically open or close the trades that they are interested in. Limit orders to sell a long or cover a short trade at your preferred price targets are especially important for those that do not have the luxury of sitting in front of a computer all day during trading hours. OCO or OCA (one-cancels-the-other OR one-cancels-another) orders are an invaluable tool to traders & investors, especially those who are not able to actively monitor their positions throughout the trading day. Feel free to contact me if you have any questions regarding OCO /OCA orders.

Aug 012014
 
AXP daily Aug 1st

AXP daily Aug 1st

AXP (American Express Co) hit the first target, T1 at 85.85, for a quick 6.6% gain from the short entry a week ago today when the stock crossed below the 91.95 entry trigger. In the previous post, I had stated T2 (84.10) as my preferred target although I very well may decide to ride the full position down to at least T3, the current final target at 78.67, depending on how AXP, the rest of the financial sector, and the broad markets trade going forward.

click here to view the live, annotated chart of AXP

Jul 312014
 
FRC daily July 31st

FRC daily July 31st

FRC (First Republic Bank) offers an objective short entry here around current levels (46.88ish) as it sits just below resistance on the daily chart. FRC was discussed in this post a couple of weeks ago as it was one of numerous regional banks on my watchlist that fell too much, too fast following my price alert in order to post an objective short entry before I could get the chart marked up, uploaded and compose a post with notes & details on the trade. I did go ahead and added FRC as a Short Trade Setup and I have been monitoring the stock closely, waiting for the near-term overbought conditions as a result of that one-day post-earnings plunge to moderate, which they have.

I was also waiting to see if FRC would regain what was my first target (former support, now resistance) level, which so far, the stock has failed to accomplish after several attempts over the last week or so. As such, I’ve decided to establish a short position in FRC with a suggested stop above 48.10, which is slightly above the former first target, now R1 (resistance) level. This relatively tight stop (in relation to the two price targets, T1 & T2) give this trade an attractive R/R or nearly 4:1 to the first target and better than 5:1 if targeting T2 (the final target).

Remember, many of the Active Short Trades are in the regional banking sector. Just as with long-term investing, proper diversification amongst positions when actively trading is extremely important in the mitigation of risk due to the potential over-exposure to any one sector.

click here to view the live chart of FRC

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