Clicky

US Equity Market Outlook 3-8-16 (video)

The video makes the case that the recent rally in the US equity markets has quite likely run its course and we could very well be in the final stages of a bear market rally with a new wave a selling rapidly approaching. At the very least, the R/R is no longer skewed to the long side as it has been for the last month or so. My current trading plan as well as some preferred trading vehicles are outlined in this video.

For those that do not have time to view the video at this time, my thoughts are that the low-priced, lower-quality second & third tier stocks that have mounted explosive rallies lately will likely lead the market lower, along with the higher-beta indices such as the Nasdaq 100 & Russell 2000, should the US equity markets move lower in the coming days, weeks or months.

0
Mar 8, 2016 9:32am|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , , , , , |12 Comments

12 Comments

  1. tmeyaart March 8, 2016 9:59 am at 9:59 am

    In response to your question, I prefer the videos.

    0

  2. pangblood March 8, 2016 10:01 am at 10:01 am

    great video, thanks Randy

    0

  3. ETFguy March 8, 2016 10:14 am at 10:14 am

    Randy, one of your best videos ever! Excellent balance of your outlook for future market action and the logic to support it. The support of your forecast with logic sets you apart from the others. Good Work!

    0

  4. Mrg5a March 8, 2016 10:19 am at 10:19 am

    @rsotc

    Thanks for the education. You are a great teacher

    0

  5. riverbirch March 8, 2016 11:05 am at 11:05 am

    Thanks-I prefer the videos as they are educational and you cover several topics such as sentiment, long, intermediate and short term trends, various sectors, etc.

    0

  6. dan123 March 8, 2016 11:43 am at 11:43 am

    Great video, thank you

    0

  7. Lisa Trading March 8, 2016 11:51 am at 11:51 am

    Thank you for another great video!

    0

  8. Eric K March 8, 2016 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm

    Fabulous video Randy! Thanks for letting us in your head. I too prefer the videos, but an occasional static chart with a very short bottom line statement (like you did on this post) to keep us oriented is very helpful for those of us who can’t access the videos during the day.

    0

  9. rsotc March 8, 2016 1:23 pm at 1:23 pm

    Thanks for the feedback guys. I’ll continue to make an effort to post a brief synopsis, along with static charts when possible, for those that don’t have the time or ability to watch the video right away, especially on the more timely commentary & trade ideas such as this one. Thanks again. -RP

    0

  10. rsotc March 8, 2016 1:46 pm at 1:46 pm

    A couple of comments to add to this UNG trade idea. First off, should this trade start to play out, I’m consider adding additional targets while also adding UNG to the Long-term Trades category, as the charts of UNG & $NATGAS (Natural Gas spot price) indicate that a pending primary trend change is likely. In fact, I’ll go so far as to say that yesterday could very well have marked the end of the extremely vicious bear market that has cut natural gas prices in half in under a year.

    Although this current swing trade is based off the 60-minute time frame, both UNG & $NATGAS have strong bullish divergences in place with a couple of recent, potentially bullish technical developments that could indicate that a bottom is near. As highlighted on the 60-minute chart in this post, recently volume patterns the daily chart of UNG are also indicative of a selling climax. In addition, $NATGAS (spot prices) printed a nice bullish engulfing candlestick yesterday (although not seen in UNG, which doesn’t track spot prices, rather the near-month futures contracts, hence the slight variation between the two).

    I also like that fact that natural gas did not participate in the recent crude rally, which took just about all other alternative energy sources (coal, solar, nuclear, etc..) up for a ride along with it. The common (or profitable) theme to this market lately has been sector rotation. Gold stocks, energy stocks, shipping stocks, etc..; one after another they pop, the momentum traders jump in, ride the wave & then move on to the next beat down, left for dead sector. Hence my reasoning for wanting to start a partial position now, as although there is still quite a bit of work to be done to firm the bullish case for natural gas, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to wake up to a 5-8% gap & run in UNG that leaves out the wanna-be longs out & traps as many shorts as possible.

    As with any aggressive trade, beta-adjusting your position size to account for the above average risk & volatility is critical, as is the use of stops, in case this one doesn’t pan out. As always, DYODD & trade according to your own objectives, risk tolerance & trading style.

    0

  11. Kstellish March 8, 2016 6:07 pm at 6:07 pm

    Randy, I certainly appreciate your videos. As the others stated, the information in the video is vastly greater than the static charts alone. And while the static charts are extremely useful for me, especially on days like today when I’m unable to watch the video, I understand the limitation towards producing static charts for all your analyses and I do feel it’s best to get that information out as fast as possible to the rsotc community.

    At the very least, I do appreciate the short summaries that accompany the videos. As with the active trade posts, those static charts are essential to setting price targets, etc. They also help providing a reference while I’m “on-the-go” and unable to sit down and/or listen to a video. At least having that general idea regarding the tone of the video helps me modify my trading style for that day. Thanks again.

    0

  12. mak42 March 8, 2016 6:44 pm at 6:44 pm

    The videos are great! And I appreciate all the comments/charts/videos and commentary!

    0

Comments are closed.