The video focuses on the near-term outlook for the US stock market while also touching on the intermediate-term & longer-term outlook, expanding on the following:
- Long-term: Both the long term-trend as well as the long-term outlook for the US equity markets remain bearish at this time. As such, any short-term & intermediate-term bullish developments & charts patterns are likely to experience an increased failure rate and those bullish chart patterns that do play out more likely to fall shy of their typical measured targets.
- Intermediate-term: The intermediate-term outlook (roughly 1 – 6 weeks) is somewhat unclear right now, with both bullish & bearish technical developments in the broad markets.
- Short-term: I remain “cautiously bullish” in the near-term, leaning towards a bounce that could carry into the end of this week, possibly further, but while the odds of another sharp leg down in the equity markets are still somewhat elevated, the risk/reward does not warrant positioning aggressively long or short at this time. As such, I continue to hold a mild net long exposure to US stocks.