Upon further review of the charts, recent price action, fundamental developments, & more, I have decided to elevate the status of the RSOTC Stock Market Watch issued in this post last week to a Stock Market Crash Warning.
RSOTC Stock Market Crash Warning
Moving the alert status up from a Watch to a Warning does not in any way guarantee that an imminent & likely swift drop in the stock market will or must happen, only that the odds for such conditions have now increased to the point that many of the necessary conditions for such as relatively rare but potentially profitable (if, positioned on the right side of it) are high enough to warrant the change.
Just like the National Weather Service doesn’t wait until a Hurricane makes landfall to warn the public of the potentially dangerous conditions, I would rather upgrade the status from a watch to a warning now (with the stock market still defending the aforementioned support levels & currently testing them, as I type).
Like I often say, support is support until & unless broken. Just as with a hurricane, tornado, or flood warning, the most important thing is to be prepared. In regard to the stock market, one simply needs to have a trading plan & be ready to act (position) accordingly, should conditions in the stock market continue to deteriorate (or improve, for that matter; i.e., a “plan B”).
NQ daily March 19th
ES daily March 12th
As the stock index futures have rolled from the March to the June contracts since I posted the Stock Market Watch last week, along with the daily charts & key support/sell trigger points for /NQ (Nasdaq 100 futures) and /ES (S&P 500 futures), the updated charts (June) with the new levels (support & resistance levels change slightly from contract to contract) are posted above.
Once again, I type, both /NQ & /ES, as well as QQQ & SPY, remain above my key support levels, which are the bottom of the 6-month+ sideways trading ranges as well as the key intersecting 200-day moving averages just below, so it’s still anyone’s (bulls or bears) game, at this time although I still believe the R/R continues to warrant a substantial net short position at this time, adding if & when additional sell signals in the stock market as well as the other key stocks (Mag 8), sectors, & other securities I’ve been highlighting lately provide additional sell signals/breaks below key support levels.
Good Trading!
-rp