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U.S. Stock Market Outlook 9-11-16 (video)

This video starts out with an overview of Friday's price action in the U.S. stock market, most importantly the long-anticipated impulsive breakdown below the key 116 support level on QQQ, followed by some near-term price targets & key technical levels to watch as well as some near-term & longer-term scenarios, both bull & bearish.

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Sep 11, 2016 3:05pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , , , |5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. joefriday September 11, 2016 4:10 pm at 4:10 pm

    Great overview and analysis… had to laugh at the “trend is your friend comment”…it is so true…lol Thanks again for all your hard work and constant updates…should be a very interesting week.. Trade it well!

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  2. dmel September 12, 2016 7:30 am at 7:30 am

    nice to know what your thoughts are before mkts open,Great job

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  3. rsotc September 12, 2016 8:36 am at 8:36 am

    dmel – Thanks. My thoughts are this: As I type (8:23am EST), the market is poised for a relatively mild gap lower, after recovering a good part of the overnight losses on the futures. Until & unless QQQ can climb back above the bottom of Friday’s gap, I view any bounce back up towards the 116 area as an objective level to add or initiate short exposure but that is generally speaking as individual stocks are best shorted or added to an existing short on either bounces back to their own resistance levels or a breakdown of key support levels just as the stops, or entries for that matter, on any longs should be determined by their own chart although the risk of long-side breakouts failing is increased at this time.

    If one was trading the Q’s, for example, they could add short exposure anywhere from about the 115 level to as high as the 116.50 level with s stop not too far above the top of Friday’s gap/Thursday’s close. The GDX/NUGT short still looks fine with the next objective short entry or add-on to come on a break below Thursday’s lows. The fact that gold did not receive a flight-to-safety bid during or since Friday’s sell-off on helps to strengthen the near-term bearish case. Other than than, like I said, each individual stock, long or short, has it’s own unique technical posture with some, like the SMH/SOXL short trade, having a much higher correlation to the broad market than others, such as the fertilizer stocks or the ACBFF (cannabis stock) longs. I will plan to post updates today on any active trade ideas in need of one.

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  4. Ruben September 12, 2016 10:02 am at 10:02 am

    Thank you
    you have mentioned the BB on one of the first charts on SPY what is the lowest level do look at? do you change settings on the BB.

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  5. rsotc September 12, 2016 10:15 am at 10:15 am

    Ruben- I’m not sure what you mean by “what is the lowest level that I look at” on the Bollinger Bands. If you are referring to that SPY chart with the BB Width that I posted a few weeks back & covered in this video then that “extreme low” level was simply a horizontal line that I added to the BB Width at a point which connected all of the lows in the BB Width over the last 7+ years. The level of that line isn’t really significant as over time the troughs (extreme lows) in the BB Widths might change. What is significant is the fact that each time the BB Width hit that level throughout the 2009-20?? bull market, without fail, a correction followed. The setting that I used on the BB Width was (20,2,0). If that wasn’t your question, please clarify. Thanks.

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