The potential third & final price target for the recent TLT (20-30 yr Treasury bond ETF) short trade has now been hit. Watching TLT closely as it is getting close to testing & potentially breaking the recent multi-year lows (i.e.- new highs in rates). Previous & updated 60-minute charts below.

TLT 60m May 5th

TLT 60m May 5th

TLT 60m May 13th

TLT 60m May 13th

Zooming out to the daily chart to look at the bigger picture, as TLT just hit the potential 3rd & final swing target from the previous trade, I’m watching the 30-yr yield ($TYX) closely as a breakout above the Oct ’23 highs would take the 30-yr to yeilds not seen since the early 2000’s… almost certainly a major headwind for the stock market should that occur. Remember, it became crystal clear that the Fed had lost control of the yield curve when the 30-yr yield ROSE instead of fell after the previous 3 rate cuts last fall.

$TYX daily May 13th

$TYX daily May 13th

While there are some potential divergences that could be the catalyst for a rally in TLT, I don’t have a strong opinion (nor position) on the near-term direction. Just something to monitor going forward, IMO.