USO exceeded the suggested stop with a 60-minute candle close of 10.13 for a loss of 1.8% today. With bullish divergences still in place and the 10.15 support holding for most of today, USO might be added back as a new trade idea soon. The USO long/UWTI short trade will now be moved to the Completed Trades category but for those still in the trade or following crude, I posted the following comments earlier today in reply to a question on the USO trade: The official entry for USO (or a UWTI short) was where it was trading when posted on [...]
The following Short Trades have either hit one or more profit targets and/or exceed their maximum suggested stop & will be moved to the Completed Trades category, where all associated posts will be archived for future reference. ADP: After reversing about 1.25% shy of the first price target, ADP went on to slightly exceed the suggested stop of 89.65 on Wednesday for a 2.6% loss. For those that gave this one a little more room on their stops, the stock still looks likely to be headed to both price targets in the coming weeks. At this point, best to set/lower stops [...]
The 11.84 level has been a key support/resistance level posted on my 60-minute charts since the first day of the month. Further validation of that level has come so far today as USO has struggled at that level all day so far. USO just took out 11.84 with a 1-minute stick close above (as I was typing & after the chart below was made although it will need to print a solid 60-minute close above to confirm a breakout above that level). Next resistance is 12.10. USO 60-minute June 20th
As of now, the USO/UTWI short trade still looks fine from a technical perspective as prices are still trading below the bearish rising wedge pattern although I do have to say that I'm a bit concerned regarding the lack of impulsive selling such as we normally see immediately following the breakdown of a rising wedge pattern. USO could make a run at a back-test of the wedge from below & if so, a back-test could come in less than 2% above current levels or USO could backtest at a higher level, possibly above the suggested stop of any move above 12.35. [...]
The following notes & charts are related to the current USO/UWTI trade idea. Please login or sign up for your free 3-week trial to view this post.
The following Active Short Trade ideas are covered in this order: ADP, AG, AMZN, BRKB, FL, GDX/NUGT, XOP/DUG/GUSH, PCLN, & USO/UWTI.
As a follow-up to the recent USO / UTWI trade idea, here's the daily chart of $WTIC (Crude Oil spot price) showing the same bearish rising wedge pattern, along with some key support & resistance levels. Should my call for a drop in crude prices play out as expected, that would almost certainly bring down the energy stocks & related ETFs such as XLE & XOP (and likely US equities in general) down along with it. $WTIC daily May 26th