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Stock Market Outlook July 10, 2016 (video)

This video discusses the recent price action in the US equity markets as well as the near-term outlook. On an admin note, I will be traveling all day tomorrow, returning home from vacation tomorrow (Monday) night. Regular updates on trade ideas & market analysis will resume Tuesday morning. It was also recently brought to my attention that some members were experiencing difficulties accessing the trading room. I believe that issue has now been resolved but please let me know if you are unable to access the trading room or any other areas of the site going forward.

Jul 10, 2016 2:03pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , , , , , , |8 Comments

8 Comments

  1. Profile gravatar of schooner
    schooner July 10, 2016 2:37 pm at 2:37 pm

    Hi Randy — just watched your excellent recap. What I’ve been wondering for a while — actually for many months — is whether all the sideways bouncing around that we’ve had for the last year and a half might simply be a correction in time (not depth) — which would be a 4th wave setting the stage for a 5th (and final) leg up in this already long bull market. I’m no expert in EW counts, but I’ve seen counts from people who are good, and there’s a reasonable case to be made that what I’ve just said might be what’s going on. We will know pretty soon. If everything does break out in an impulsive way, then we might have another powerful leg up yet to go — one thing I can say is that most bull markets of great magnitude, of which this is certainly one, don’t end with a whimper — the have blow off highs — and so far we haven’t seen that — so perhaps it is to come.

    I well recognize that what I just said could be negated soon if markets essentially double top up here and then head lower with conviction, but for the moment I think we have to consider the possibility that we may have just gone through a correction in time, but not depth. Just a thought as I prepare to depart my screen to enjoy what’s left of the weekend.

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    • Profile gravatar of lee1
      lee1 July 11, 2016 5:43 am at 5:43 am

      You got it. This was just consolidation before the big run higher and bears and shorts once again will get obliterated as they always do. Charts alone will never allow you to call a top regardless of divergences or any other indicators. Been saying for many months we will go to all time highs and been taking flack for it by some of the perma bears here calling tops every time the market pulled back.

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      • Profile gravatar of TXUTrader
        TXUTrader July 11, 2016 10:27 am at 10:27 am

        You may very well be right. But this has been a tough market for many bulls and bears. Best performers have been able to buy and sell (as well as short and cover) successfully in choppy market. We may be off to the races, but also could just be luring more bears to cover before we dip lower, it also may be looking to get buyers with orders on new highs.

        This morning (Monday) we have new highs in S&P but it is been trading below the VWAP on low volume.

        Congrats to longs if you are right. But believe that everyone needs to be careful and prepare for all scenario’s. The chop post-Brexit is a good example of how ready we need to be for sudden turns in both directions.

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    • Profile gravatar of joefriday
      joefriday July 11, 2016 7:52 am at 7:52 am

      @shambo Blow off tops are not present at the end of all bull markets. Look at 2000-20001 and 2007-2008… Just a series of lower highs and lower lows..that eventually cascaded lower and lower… This what is going on here IMHO…the only difference being that unlike the last two times we now have a Fed/ECB manipulated market that makes it even less probable that we will see a big blow off top and drop… While they will try to make it more of a soft landing … they can’t stop it from dropping..

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    • Profile gravatar of riverbirch
      riverbirch July 11, 2016 10:13 am at 10:13 am

      The election year pattern shows the market going higher thru the end of year with bouts of selling along the way. Central banks can’t prevent a bear market but they can surely delay it and I think that’s happening. Also a lot of money has come out of funds (23 0f last 26 weeks) TLT is also at an extreme level and interest rate monies will come back to equity market to some extent.

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    • Profile gravatar of rsotc
      rsotc July 12, 2016 11:16 am at 11:16 am

      schooner- You bring up an excellent & very valid scenario with the possibility that the large sideways trading range in the US markets, particularly the $SPX, was simply a consolidation before the next big leg up, similar to the deer market that we had from 1993-1994 which proved to be a consolidation between two major bull markets. I have considered that & have some thoughts to share on this which warrant a fairly detailed response, including several charts which I’d will put together in a new post or video as soon as I’ve caught up on everything.

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  2. Profile gravatar of Shambo
    Shambo July 10, 2016 8:56 pm at 8:56 pm

    nice video Randy, thanks so much.

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  3. Profile gravatar of GetItRiight
    GetItRiight July 11, 2016 10:31 am at 10:31 am

    We have topped out for sure. Gartman capitulates his short position:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-11/gartman-capitulates-shorts-we-have-had-quite-enough-we-want-out-now
    Short the market now. Haha.

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