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Stock Market Analysis via QQQ & SPY (video)

Technical analysis of the US stock market via SPY & QQQ as well as the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Emini futures.

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2018-04-16T10:41:43+00:00Apr 16, 2018 10:41am|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , , , , , |5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. FrancisQ April 16, 2018 11:35 am at 11:35 am

    Just an observation, or more like a question regarding to those rising wedges in the video. Have you given any weight or taking into an account on the steepness of the wedge? These wedges seem to rise at a shallow angle, so would you say their chance of playing out is reduced?

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    • rsotc April 16, 2018 10:14 pm at 10:14 pm

      Good point. The current rising wedge isn’t as steep as the last rising wedge that preceded the mid-March/early April correction but the current wedge (shown on the 60-min chart below) seems typical to me. In fact, the slope of the uptrend line (bottom of the wedge) is almost the same as the uptrend line of the rally that terminated with a rising wedge pattern in late January, which triggered the sharp late Jan/early Feb correction once SPY & QQQ broke down below those wedges.

      You can verify that (depending on your charting platform) by right-clicking on the uptrend line of this wedge, select “create a parallel trendline” (or just drag that existing TL) and place it next to the Jan uptrend line. Of course, the advance/rally up to the late Jan highs was much stronger with completely different technicals (extreme bullishness back then vs. extreme-to-high bearishness now, for one example), hence the sharp correction that followed.

      Bottom line is that this wedge could very well break down soon & play out to or even well-beyond the measured target. I’ve just been leaning the other way recently (bullish & long) due to many variables, some that I’ve explained, others that I haven’t & yet others that I couldn’t put into words (i.e.- instinct & past experience). However, I will say now that we’ve rallied almost 6% in less than two weeks, I’m increasingly on the lookout for a pullback & still can’t completely write off these 60-minute wedges as they are still intact & have yet to take out the potential divergences. Also, note that earnings season is starting to get underway so couple that with the bursting of the short vol trade recently & about the only thing that I feel very confident about right now is the likelihood that the market will experience an increase in opening gaps, both up & down, in the coming weeks.

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      • FrancisQ April 17, 2018 5:16 am at 5:16 am

        Thanks for the further insights. I too rely on gut feel or intuition from time to time.

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  2. Heinz1 April 16, 2018 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm

    Randy, thank you for this clear analysis of the QQQ and SPY. I know there is a lot going on, but sometime this week, can you provide an update to the IEF/TLT active long swing trade?

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    • rsotc April 16, 2018 9:51 pm at 9:51 pm

      Will do. Please bump me if I haven’t posted an update on IEF & TLT by early afternoon tomorrow.

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