Marginal Upside Triangle Breaks- $USD Reversal Still Likely

As with the $SPX/SPY, the $NDX/QQQ managed to close slightly above the triangle but not by a convincing margin. Any upside follow-thru tomorrow is likely to be capped by the 4340 resistance level while a downside resolution is still very much a possibility.


As with Friday's unconvincing & brief breaks below these patterns, today's marginal breakouts will need to be confirmed with additional upside tomorrow and in the coming days. Even a push towards some of the key overhead resistance levels, such as the 199-200 area on the SPY, will not come close to flipping the short & intermediate-term trend indicators from solidly bearish, as they remained at the close despite today's rally, to bullish. As such, I haven't made any changes to my positioning today other than a starter position in CENX to add a little more exposure to the commodity sector, which should continue to benefit should the yesterday's EUR/USD bullish falling wedge pattern breakout continue to play out as expected (Euro up/Dollar down).

EUR-USD 60 2 minute Sept 8th

EUR-USD 60 2 minute Sept 8th

Sep 8, 2015 4:20pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis, Forex (Currencies)|Tags: , , , , , , |Comments Off on Marginal Upside Triangle Breaks- $USD Reversal Still Likely