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Semiconductor Sector Analysis (video)

The outlook for the semiconductor sector via analysis of the three main semiconductor ETFs: SMH, XSD & SOXX as well as the individual semiconductor stock holdings within SMH. Although AMD is not a component of SMH, I did cover the stock starting at the 5:45 mark as I've received several inquiries on it in the trading room recently not to mention it was an active trade until it exceeded the suggested stop yesterday.

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Feb 2, 2017 3:43pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , , , |6 Comments

6 Comments

  1. MilosRoad February 2, 2017 6:42 pm at 6:42 pm

    Hi Randy,
    Semi Sector has a lot lot more room to run. I’ll go on record and say any short you put on Semi’s will be similar to shorting Airlines in 2013 and Biotech. Do think you can get some weakness but that is a sector which has 20% relative outperformance vs. the SPX. Fundamentally, thesis of Semi Content to find its way into more and more consumer goods(Semi-Autonomous Vehicles, VCSEsL etc.). Semi shorts outside of a little weakness coming up will get stopped out, over and over again. It’s a waste of time. IMO. Any advise to others to short will only add fuel to this move higher. Semi’s are going higher. Much Higher.

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    • Ruben February 2, 2017 7:01 pm at 7:01 pm

      I don’t agree, there are number of positions that Randy pointed out that can take a nice swing to the downside. Randy is pointing out from a technical view not what and how strong they are. Once the sector sneezes the ones that are or close to poise to go negative will take a quicker dive.

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      • MilosRoad February 2, 2017 7:19 pm at 7:19 pm

        From a technical view Semi’s look good. Swing Trading to the downside one of the strongest sectors IMO will prove to be a waste of time. The Semi-Conducter sector isn’t going to sneeze in 2017, in fact it likely outperforms considerably. IMO. It will remain the strongest sector. there are going to be a lot of situations where by shorting Semi’s will be very frustrating. February may provide some weakness but I’ll be levered and long Semi’s after Feb. 23 with an overweigh in AXTI, IIVI. Just a heads up is all.

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        • qlikely February 3, 2017 2:45 am at 2:45 am

          Appreciated. I like hearing dissenting views. Also appreciate all of Randy’s hard work of course!

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        • rsotc February 3, 2017 8:21 am at 8:21 am

          @MilosRoad- I had received an email notification of this comment last night & replied to you via email mistakenly thinking that it was sent via the contact form but will re-post my reply here for all to see:

          You may very well prove to be right. I jumped the gun too early on some semi short trades in the last few month & also booked some nice profits on some others. However, I’ll wait patiently for the sector to confirm a likely trend change with SMH, XSD & SOXX all three confirming & if the bearish technical that are currently indicating a likely substantial correction in the sector dissipate, then so be it. No sell signal, no more shorts other than quick pullback trades.

          Best of luck to you on those positions. I hope they continue to work out for you & if not, just make sure to cut your losses if they start to move against you & not to underestimate just how much the semis can & have dropped after similar bull runs in the past.

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  2. jegersmart February 3, 2017 5:09 am at 5:09 am

    Milos, are you long semis currently? How do you decide to take a position in anything several weeks before doing so?

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