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QQQ & SPY 60-minute Charts

Watching the market trade the last couple of days leading up to an FOMC meeting is like watching paint dry. So far this week, the broad market (S&P 500) has put in two candles so small you almost need a microscope to see them, moving slightly higher by a mere 1/4th of 1% so far this week. As a type this, we have exactly 24 hours to go before the FOMC rate announcement & subsequent statement is released tomorrow so I'm expecting more of the same until then.

$SPX daily June 12th

$SPX daily June 12th

With that being said, here are the updated 60-minute charts of SPY & QQQ along with my observations. As of now, the PPO signal line remains above zero on both the SPY & QQQ 60-minute charts, confirming their near-term trends as bullish the negative divergences continue to build & warn of a likely impending trend change with a sell signal to come on a break below the uptrend line on QQQ.

QQQ 60-min June 12th

QQQ 60-min June 12th

SPY has crossed slightly below its respective uptrend line today but far from impulsive, plus, whipsaw signals are usually quite common during the low-volume grinds leading up to FOMC meetings.

SPY 60-min June 12th

SPY 60-min June 12th

Bottom line: Later this week we should have a better idea of whether these divergences are likely to play out for a correction or if they will be burned through, with the market moving higher in the wake of the FOMC announcement.

As I don't plan to do any trading over the next day or so, I will only be periodically checking in on the trading room & will provide charts opinions & answer any questions at my earliest convenience.

 

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2018-06-12T14:15:20+00:00Jun 12, 2018 2:15pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , , , |6 Comments

6 Comments

  1. mwright June 12, 2018 2:31 pm at 2:31 pm

    something just broke on the markets nasdaq dropped 30 points in 30 minutes.

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    • rsotc June 12, 2018 2:46 pm at 2:46 pm

      There may very well be a news headline that sparked that dip but seems like the typical pre-FOMC noise (rips & dips but going nowhere in the end) to me. This is a 1-minute (candlesticks) chart of SPY over the past few days:

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      • gogators0228 June 12, 2018 5:00 pm at 5:00 pm

        SPX very close to the november 2016 trendline. I expect that to be touched before making a downward move or further extension

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  2. stock51 June 12, 2018 3:33 pm at 3:33 pm

    and now it is back up.
    It is all Machines, ALOG

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  3. gogators0228 June 12, 2018 6:40 pm at 6:40 pm

    I just want to mention one thing. The SPX climb from recent levels is identical to the one experienced in January. The daily graphs are close
    to being mirrored. with one exception, no rallying VIX alongside a rallying SPX. I am still rather bullish at this point but will expect somewhat of a
    pull back to 2768. Also take note this is the summer. We make ATHs on the SPX this summer.

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/fima.12182

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    • FrancisQ June 13, 2018 6:34 am at 6:34 am

      Agree.
      .
      Just want to add. January’s rally occurred AFTER 15 months of practically continuous grinding up, but this rally preceded by 4 months of consolidation. Hence low VIX.

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