I wanted to post a quick overview of the financial markets with the near to intermediate-term outlook for most of the major asset classes. Charts & detail commentary will follow on any actionable trading opportunities as well as the active trade ideas on the site.
Starting with the US equity markets, despite the market’s near-term oversold/bounce off support/rally into Options Expiration late last week, by nearly all metrics that I follow, the sell signals & bearish trend indicators on both the 60-minute as well as the daily time frames remain intact as of Friday’s close. So far, that end of week snap-back rally was just a typical retracement, with both the SPY & QQQ reversing around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the preceding sharp drop off Tuesday’s highs. Again, charts & additional commentary on the US equity markets will follow but as of Friday’s close, it appears that the end of week bounce did little to nothing to reverse the bearish technical developments that occurred with the sharp selloff on Wednesday.
The near-term outlook for gold & GDX remains bullish with GLD appearing to have formed a bull flag continuation pattern (on the 60-minute time frame) from Wednesday’s highs into Friday’s lows with prices breaking above that flagging pattern shortly before the close on Friday & currently poised to build on those gains as GLD is indicated to gap higher at the open today. After hitting the first target last week, the GDX Active Long Trade fell back towards the support zone on the 60-minute chart (while GLD was flagging) and also started to move higher with gold on Friday while also trading higher in the pre-market session today.
Most agricultural commodities look to either be in the process of bottoming or may have already done so & look to offer attractive R/R profiles at this time with minimal downside risk compared to the upside potential. Follow-up posts on the various ag commodities that stand out will follow soon. In the energy complex, I’m somewhat neutral to slightly bearish on crude oil & well as natural gas (don’t have a very strong opinion/read on the charts) while still moderately bullish on the solar sector, particular select companies vs. the sector as a whole.
I’d like to study the charts on the various classes of fixed income (treasuries, investment grade corporates, high-yield corps & municipal bonds) in more detail but I do remain near-term to intermediate-term bullish on treasury bonds (i.e- bond prices up/yields down).