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Long Swing Trade Ideas Updated

The following Long Swing Trade ideas have either hit one or more profit targets and/or hit their suggested stop or final price target & will be reassigned to the Completed Long Swing Trades category, along with all associated posts (charts & notes) to be archived indefinitely for future reference. Due to the large number of trades that need to be moved from the Active to the Completed Trades category at this time, the following trades will be batched out together:

BBBY: Posted as a trade setup on Dec 6th, triggering a long entry the next day on an impulsive breakout above 46.71 and gaining about 4.5% from there to fall about 2% shy of the first target before drifting back down below the suggested stop of any move below 45.00 for a loss of 5.2% on a large earnings-induced gap down as the stock gapped below the suggested stop to open at 44.29, where any standing BTC stop-loss orders would have been filled. Otherwise, this trade would have only resulted in a loss of 3.7% if stopped out at 44.99.

CARA: Not sure whether to categorize this one as a winner or loser as so many updates where made to this one over the last year both on the front page with static charts & video coverage of the cannabis sector as well as numerous trading room updates. CARA was also highlighted as both an official & unofficial trade with numerous entries on breakouts & pullbacks to support & even most recently as an unofficial short when the final target of 18.10 was hit.

Best I can tell from the notes on the official trade is that CARA made a very brief intraday run below the last suggested stop of a cross below 6.00 the day before they reported earnings back on Nov 7th & although I recall stating that I was going to suspend my stops, I can't find that on the front page updates that were categorized as an official trade. As such, although CARA has produced gains well in excess of triple digits from the numerous long & short (pullback trades to support) unofficial trade entries that were posted in both the cannabis videos & trading room updates on CARA as one of the most profitable trade ideas shared over the last year, it will be considered stopped out on the Nov 4th brief intraday stop-raid below 6.00 for a 10.7% loss (or 5.35% beta-adjusted loss as the official trade has a suggested beta-adjustment of 0.5 due to the above average gain/loss potential for that trade).

FIT: Posted as a trade setup on Feb 24th with a long entry to be triggered on a break above 6.20, which occurred 3 days later. The breakout failed with the stock drifting back below the suggested stop of any move below 5.67 for a loss of 8.9% (minus 25% if factoring in the suggested beta-adjustment of 0.75). Note- FIT is currently backtesting the falling wedge pattern on the daily chart with potential divergences still in place on the 60-minute & daily charts & could still very well play out for those giving the position a little more room.

FRO: FRO hit the first price target for a quick 4.2% profit about 1 hour after posting the entry. Immediately after hitting the first price target, the stock reversed & went on to trigger the suggested stop below 7.35 for a 4.2% loss for those that did not book partial or full profits at T1 (T2 at 8.82 was the 2nd & final target).

IPI: Posted as a long entry at 1.49 back on Aug 30th & went on to hit the suggested stop below 1.27 for a 15.4% loss on Sept 16th.

MOS: Entry posted at 26.15 on April 13th with the stock trading in a sideways range for months, finally going on to gap down below the bottom of the trading range as well as the suggested stop of 23.70 to close at 23.24 on Oct 13th for a loss of 9.2%*. *MOS paid out two dividends totaling 0.55 while the trade was active, thereby reducing the cost basis on the trade from 26.15 to 25.60.

POT: This is another trade with various entry points plus, as both a Swing Trade as well as a Growth & Income Trade, with an above average dividend yield, the cost basis on this trade was significantly reduced. POT was first added as a Swing Trade + Gr & Inc Trade back on Jan 13, 2016 at 15.77. Since then, the stock has paid out 5 quarterly dividends totaling 1.08, thereby reducing the cost basis on the original lot to 14.69. The stock is current trading at 17.00, about a 16% cumulative profit. However, tracking & updating Gr & Inc trades can be difficult as the price targets & stop levels should be adjusted over time to reflect the drop in the stock price each time it goes ex-dividend as stocks typically fall in price by the amount of the upcoming dividend payment.

Either way, in the June 28th update on POT, the suggested stop was raised from a weekly close of 14.90 to a daily close below 15.40 in order to protect profits. While that stop should have since been modified (lowered) to reflect the 0.25 dividend that would be reflected in the price after the July 8th ex-dividend date, I never did so & POT went on to slightly undercut the 15.40 stop closing only one day below that level at 15.32 on Aug 1st, which marked the bottom of a pullback with the stock rallying over 32% from there. As I never got around to modifying the stop to reflect that dividend payment, POT will be consider stopped out for a gain of 2.9%. That gain is calculated using the adjusted cost basis of 14.89 (15.77 entry - 0.88 in dividends received up to that point) vs. the selling/stop price of 15.32.

SEDG: Added as a long entry at 16.87 on Sept 28th with the stock going on to trigger the suggested stop below 16.60 for a relative minor loss of 1.66%.

STNG: Added as a long entry on a breakout of the bullish falling wedge pattern on Dec 9th with that breakout failing & the stock going on to move below the suggested stop of a 60-minute close below 4.25 for a beta-adjusted loss of about 3.7%* (*accounting for the 50% suggested beta-adjustment to the position size).

YELP: This trade was a reversal from short to long following the previous YELP short trade that hit the final target for a 20% profit the previous day. Stops were set very tight with the stock going to just slightly undercut the suggested stop below 32.60 for a minor loss of 1.1% with the stock reversing shortly afterwards & gaining over 35% from there. Some members posted giving the trade more room on their stops... congrats!

As of now, all trades listed under the Active Long Swing Trades category are still active & the charts still appear constructive at this time. The other trade categories, including the Short Swing Trades, will be updated asap.

 

 

 

 

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Mar 15, 2017 1:49pm|Categories: Completed Trades - Long|Tags: , , , , , , , , , |Comments Off on Long Swing Trade Ideas Updated