I’ve just spent 2+ hours replying to questions going back to Wednesday (don’t you just love it how you “pay the price” for taking time off from work nowadays) & believe that I replied to them all but if not, just bump me again by posting your question again & I’ll get back to you asap.
Regarding the market, I know that the argument could be made that the market is simply down about as much as it was up yesterday and as such, that’s a wash. Maybe it will prove to be & again, the market will close the week in relatively close proximity to the key support/resistance level that the S&P 500 has been testing for the past 4 weeks so really no resolution of that level until at least next week.
With that being said, the impulsive selling following the failed breakout earlier this week is a net bearish event (false breakout/bull trap) so despite my recent biases & continued expectation for a reversal off this level, so far today the price action today is clearly bearish & could or “should” have bearish implications next week & going forward. Again, additional bearish evidence would be needed to firm up the case for a significant correction & that could come next week if the market starts to move impulsively lower & goes on to undercut the March 8th lows.
First things first, and that would be to see what the market does in the next & final 2-hours of trading coming up. A big rally into the close would keep the SPY on or slightly above support & also dampen the implications of the current big red bearish candlestick on the daily chart as remember, what matters most when viewing the daily time frame is how the candlestick closes the day (ditto for the weekly charts with weekly candles finalized at 4pm on Fridays). Should the market rally to recoup a good part of today’s losses by the close, that would just keep us in wait & see mode heading into next week. Should the market take another leg down & close at or below the current lows, that would increase the chances of more downside to come next week.
I will also add that the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and FAAMG stocks/tech sector have a lot of work to do to firm up the case for a decent correction in the market. Despite one of the largest single-day drops so far in 2019, QQQ has vastly outperformed the other large-cap indexes recently (SPY, DIA, etc.) and as was the case back in Sept 2018, the market is unlikely to have a meaningful correction until tech (XLK) and the FAAMGs stocks break. Regardless of what happens in the final 2-hours of trading today, I will post a weekly market wrap video after the close today.