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Late-Session Market Analysis 12-4-18

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Late-Session Market Analysis 12-4-18

Late-session technical analysis of the US stock market as the markets head into the final minutes of trading along with some key levels & developments to watch for when the trading resumes on Thursday.

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2018-12-04T16:03:26+00:00Dec 4, 2018 4:03pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , , , , , |4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. jumpingbean December 4, 2018 5:06 pm at 5:06 pm

    Hey Randy, I’m seeing this as you’ve pointed out weeks ago, 1 more flush out down leg to create a divergent low, and then go long for a multi week or month move to get us out of the correction. Do you still see that and is the most preferred scenario?

    Also, a lot of people put weight on the inverted yield curves. Do you as well?

    If all things play out, I see the final flush move to mark from an elliott perspective a primary wave 4 and we’ll be working on the final leg of the bull market with inverted yield curves flipping all playing out together with confluence.

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    • rsotc December 6, 2018 3:20 pm at 3:20 pm

      I do see that “one more flush down to create a divergent low in SPY” scenario as quite likely although at this time, I’m probably close to 50/50 on whether that will happen or if the market reverse before SPY undercuts the recent lows.
      I used to put a pretty big weighting on the predictive value of the yield curve inverting but not so much in the wake of the unprecedented QE by the global central banks which has caused some major distortions in the financial markets & maybe lead to false signals with yield curve inversion. Plus, I am usually more concerned with the 2 yr falling below the 10 yr. Another problem that I have is that everybody & their brother is talking about the yield curve inversion & how accurately it predicts recessions. Too many people using the same signal & it usually doesn’t work.

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  2. h2so4 December 4, 2018 6:13 pm at 6:13 pm

    @rsotc I am trying to get my charts to line up to yours. On my hourly charts your PPO looks very different to mine. It looks like you are using 90 day hourly. My PPO lines up with your daily charts. Any idea why that would be. I had to down load a home built version as think or swim doesn’t have it as a standard option. Seems to work outside of that hourly range. Thanks,

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    • rsotc December 6, 2018 3:23 pm at 3:23 pm

      The total number of days on the chart shouldn’t make a difference. If the PPO settings are the same (12,26,9) then the PPO’s should be identical on two charts using the same time frame. Make sure that your PPO & signal line are both set to exponential & also make sure that the time frame on the chart of mine that you were referring to was indeed a 60-min chart.

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