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End of Day Analysis for QQQ & SPY

The positive divergence was confirmed via a bullish crossover on the QQQ 60-min chart & by all accounts, this bullish falling wedge appears ripe for a breakout. However, I still favor another thrust down to T3 at this time, even if it comes after a failed pop above the wedge pattern. With that being said, this is a pretty clean falling wedge pattern so it would be prudent to respect any impulsive breakout which is also confirmed by a breakout above the comparable downtrend line on the 60-minute chart of SPY.

QQQ 60-min 2 June 28th

QQQ 60-min 2 June 28th

Zooming out to the bigger picture, despite today's somewhat impressive rally in QQQ, nothing has changed from a technical perspective on the daily time frame as this candle only retraced about 1/2 of yesterday's big red candle with QQQ still yet hit even the minimal 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the move down off the June 20th high.

QQQ daily June 28th

QQQ daily June 28th

As with QQQ, we have some technical cross-currents on SPY with the 60-min bullish divergences confirmed today yet the PPO signal line is still well below zero, keeping that near-term trend bearish since June 15th. Unlike QQQ which tagged its 60-minute downtrend line today & closed slightly below it, SPY closed comfortably below its near-term downtrend line today after failing at the 271.20ish resistance level. My preferred scenario has SPY making at least one more thrust down below today's lows although an impulsive breakout above the downtrend line could change that.

SPY 60-min June 28th

SPY 60-min June 28th

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2018-06-28T17:25:07+00:00Jun 28, 2018 5:25pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , , , |2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. jamesp June 28, 2018 5:30 pm at 5:30 pm

    Thanks Randy was hoping to get your near term outlook on things after todays rally. It hurt pretty bad on my shorts seeing some profit going out the window but I have decided to stay the course to see if there is one more thrust down which I favor based on the daily and weekly time frames. The hourly seems a bit choppy and hard to get a read but that falling wedge has me concerned. I think if I see a strong breakout I’m going to cut my losses and close out my remaining shorts. That being said has been very profitable for me since I have been short tech since 6/18 so gives me a little more room to be flexible since im very in the black still. Though another day like today is going to really hurt 🙂

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  2. heyXd June 28, 2018 8:25 pm at 8:25 pm

    thanks for the analysis randy, while spy and QQQ seem to have retraced back into the wedge, some otheres notably amd and nvidia, amzn seem to have broken out and stayed broken out

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