Despite a green close on Friday, SPY remained below the 281.20ish key resistance level since reversing off Monday’s tag of that level. The 50-ema is still below the 200-day since the early Oct death cross with the last week’s high-level bearish crossover on the PPO still in play (fast line closed the week below the slow line) with the RSI still at overbought (70+) readings.

SPY daily March 4th

SPY daily March 4th

The semiconductor sector appears poised for a substantial correction. SOXX  brokedown below primary uptrend line last week following a failed breakout above the primary downtrend line along with a backtest of the TL from below on Friday. Also, not the high-level bearish PPO crossover along with the RSI turning down off overbought levels. Sell signal on SOXX pending an impulsive break and/or 60-min close below the blue uptrend line with a couple of potential (unadjusted) price targets shown below.

BAL (cotton ETN) appears to be setting up as a potential long swing trade following the recent divergent low within this falling wedge pattern. No buy signals yet but one to watch and/or start scaling into with a stop below the recent lows.

BAL daily March 4th

BAL daily March 4th

DBA (Agricultural ETF) is still on watch as a potential bottoming play, pending evidence of a reversal which could come with some impulsive buying this week following Friday’s hammer candlestick.

DBA daily March 4th

DBA daily March 4th

JO (coffee ETN) still looks poised for more upside, minor zigs & zags aside, following last week’s breakout while /KC (coffee futures) still look fine following last week’s breakout. Ideally, the 98.18ish support level below should contain any near-term pullbacks with a backtest of the minor downtrend line the next support below if not. /KC also appears to be bull flagging at this time so watch for an impulsive move higher today for a potential breakout & rally above the flag.

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