I’m sure most of you are video’d out so I figured I post a quick update as both SPY & QQQ just made a new LOD (low-of-day). Interesting (and potentially technically significant) not a single one of the market-leading Magnificent 8 stocks (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, GOOGL, META, TSLA, & NVDA) has taken out their LOD (including pre-market session lows, where most bottomed so far today).
AAPL is getting close to testing it’s pre-market low as I type with TSLA & NVDA not too far above their respective LOD’s so by the time the digit ink (pixels) on this post dries, that may no longer be the case. But for now, both the $SPX & $NDX are trading on key support & Fibonacci retracement levels with all 8 of the market-leading stocks trading above their previous lows for the day while the indexes (translation: dragged down more so by the lower-quality, second & third tier stocks) just undercut the previous lows).
While the price action remains nothing but 110% bearish so far today & the market looking like it has a cinder-block tied to its leg, I still favor a rally off these support levels although far from adamant, at least at this time. My best guess right now: A strong late-session rally that recoups most (and potentially all and even them some…with the latter most likely needing a news catalyst) of today’s losses due to shorts closing out positions in front of the weekend.
Of course that can go the other way, especially if stocks build on today’s losses heading into the close as that would most likely trigger margin-call-induced forced selling. Stay nimble & remember that a lot can & IS likely to happen over the weekend (from a news perspective), leading to a potentially large gap in either direction when the trading week opens on Monday morning. As such, I always find it best to reduce net exposure to the market (via closing/reducing position sizes and/or taking hedges) before heading into the weekend.
The levels I’m watching on the intraday (1 – 15-minute charts) that have a decent chance of sparking a late-session rally, if taken out, are: QQQ 438, SPY 552.50, & IWM 184.00. No breakouts, no rally. At least not today.