Regarding the post-FOMC “noise”, so far we the first full trading day (Thursday) was bullish with the Friday & so far today the stock market (S&P 500) giving back half (a 50% Fibonacci retracement) of the post-2pm FOMC rally. A full fade (100% retracement) of the post-announcement rally would be quite bearish IMO & we are now at the point where that post-FOMC “noise” should begin to abate, with the stock market likely to start telling us what the direction of the next tradable trend will be. Keep in mind this is a 4-day trading week with the US stock market closed for Good Friday.
IEF (7-10 yr Treasury bond ETF) remains in the yellow zone after being rejected off the top of it (94.50 resistance as well as a new potential downtrend line) while coming up on the 94ish support. A solid break above the yellow zone would likely be net bullish for the stock market with a drop down into the orange zone bearish for equities. 60-minute chart below.
IEF 60m March 25th
One of the other major asset classes that I continue to monitor for clues on where equities are likely headed from here is crude oil. USO/crude oil ETN (i.e.: inflation) remains solidly entrenched in a near-term uptrend with a solid break above 70 to put it in my orange zone (bearish for equities) while a drop back below the yellow zone & especially below that likely to be net bullish for stocks. Daily chart below.
USO daily March 25th
Here’s the updated 15-minute chart which the most recent active trader + potential swing trade short was entered at Thursday’s high (top of trading range). The PPO is currently testing the -0.10 bull/bear trend delineation line from above, keeping that particular trend indicator on a buy signal for now although a solid cross of the PPO signal line (9-ema) below it would signal a near-term (bearish) trend change. I would seem prudent to lower stops to around the top of the range/Thursday’s highs at this time for those short while those bullish & might want to see the top of the range solidly taken out and/or wait to buy pullbacks to any or all of the support levels on this chart down to but not below the bottom of the trading range (purple box).
QQQ 15m March 25th