Despite the tragic attacks in Paris Friday evening with stock futures trading considerable lower since, I’m still leaning towards at least a minor reaction off my initial minimum downside targets in the $NDX & $SPX which is where both indices closed the week. However, I would give nearly equal odds on a move down to the 4400 level & slightly lower odds on a continued move towards the 4325-4315 support zone before any meaningful bounce.
$NDX 60 minute Nov 13th close
I still favor at least a minor reaction of my initial downside targets on the $SPX as well, which was also where that index closed on Friday but I’d give nearly equal odds on a thrust down to the 199oish level & slightly lower odds on a move down to the 1970 area before a meaningful bounce.
$SPX 60 minute Nov 13th close
Regarding the bigger picture, after managing to cross back above the 43-week ema earlier in the week, the 17-ema was rejected on its attempt to undo the recent death cross on this very reliable intermediate t0 long-term trend indicator, closing back comfortably below the 43-week ema & keeping this trend indicator on a sell (bearish) signal. More often than not, when a key moving average trend pair used to define a trend make a “kiss” like this pair did last week, the following move in the direction of the current trend is often very impulsive.
$SPX 43-17 weekly ema trend Nov 13th close
Bottom line: As stated over the last couple of weeks, the markets were at a critical technical juncture where the intermediate & longer-term bearish scenario would have began to quickly dissipate, should the markets have continued higher. That did not happen & the price action over the last week has keep the bearish scenario alive & well for now. While my analysis tells me that we could very likely begin another very strong, relentless sell-off such as we experienced back in August, the risk/reward to adding new short exposure or positioning aggressively short at this point is not very attractive as the markets are becoming quite oversold in the near-term while closing last week right at the first of the three key support areas highlighted in the 60-minute charts above. If short, one strategy might be to trail down stops at this point, booking partial or full profits at either of the next two downside targets on the charts above.