I normally don’t comment on the post-FOMC announcement “noise” as the initial reaction and quite often the subsequent reactions that day are often meaningless regarding the next major direction for stocks. With that being said, I’ve been away from my desk most of the day & have to leave again soon so here are my thoughts at this time.
The EUR/USD has taken out the previous reaction high following the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady. Should this initial reaction continue to play out in the coming days, weeks & months, as I expect, that would likely have bearish implications on equities & bullish implications for precious metals & commodities. Stocks are still positive on the day as I type but as highlighted recently, the strong correlation between the $USD and stock prices is likely to resume very shortly with either stocks down (preferred scenario) or the dollar rising (doubtful not only based on the charts but also on the fact that rate hike that has been expected for months did not materialize. A large part of the gains in the $USD over the past few months was based on the expectation of higher rates). The US stock indices also continue to face major overhead resistance, such as the aforementioned 204 level on the SPY, about 1 ½% overhead.
EUR-USD 60 minute Sept 17th
After stalling at the first resistance/target level/38.2% Fib, GDX along with GLD has rallied sharply along with a sinking dollar on the Fed’s decision to not raise rates.
GDX 30 minute Sept 17th