Most of my home town of Fort Myers, FL is still without power including my home although I’m now back online with generator power & a (slow) internet connection via tethering off my cell phone. I hope to be fully running with both my power & high-speed internet connection restored soon but don’t know exactly when that will be.
With most of the damage & debris clean-up now behind us, starting tomorrow I plan to resume posting market analysis & trade ideas on a more regular basis as well as replying to questions & chart requests within the trading room.
I’ve spent some time reviewing the active trade ideas as well as a few other charts & wanted to pass along any notable developments. Additional commentary along with charts and/or video coverage will follow tomorrow.
Long Trade Ideas
CMG: Exceeded the suggested stop of any move below 308 by a small margin but still looks promising for those using a more liberal stop or interested in taking position here soon. CMG will be removed from the Active Trades category as soon as I update all of the trade ideas but might be added back as another Long Swing Trade soon, if the charts firm up.
WEAT: Still looks like a potential bottom in wheat prices. WEAT looks poised to run on a solid break and/or close above 6.60.
SIL: The silver miners ETF long fell just shy of the sole price target with gold futures breaking down below a bearish rising wedge on the 60-min time frame, dragging silver as well as the mining sector down with it. As of now, /GC (gold futures) has completed the measured target for that rising wedge pattern with potential bullish divergences forming on the 60-min time frame. GDX also hit my lower-most pullback target which I had posted with a 60-min chart last week shortly before I left town to dodge the storm. As such, I favor an imminent reversal & rally in the mining stocks.
SNAP: Came within mere basis points/pennies of the final target last week & still looks likely to hit it soon. Consider raising stops to protect profits if still long.
TSCO: Hit the final target, T3, on Tuesday & will be moved to the Completed Trades category as soon as all trade ideas are updated.
XOP: Hit T1 on Tuesday & still looks good up to at least T2. I may still add an additional price target(s) to this trade as the technical picture for the Oil & Gas E&P sector continues to firm up.
NIB: Continues to base, still looks good.
XCO: Exceeded the suggested stop but the charts continue to indicate a likely bottom or at least a tradable rally soon. Will update this one soon although this official trade is stopped out & will be moved to the Completed Trades category asap.
Unofficially (for now), JO (coffee ETN) & SGG (sugar ETN) look to be firming up & the CIE long setup appears poised for a breakout above the daily bullish falling wedge. I may revise the entry trigger on that one soon.
Short Trade Ideas
Many of the Property & Casualty Insurance stocks as well as the Reinsurance Companies highlighted in the recent videos have bounced back to backtest the key trendline and/or horizontal former support, now resistance levels the were highlighted. As such, several of those stocks offer objective short entries & some might be added as official trades tomorrow.
CNA: Still well below the uptrend line/price channel & currently backtesting the S1 (now R1) level. As such, this one still looks good for now & even provides another objective short entry or add-on here.
TPRE was one of the reinsurance stocks covered in the videos. Since the last update, the stock bounced in the “IRMA-not-as-bad-as expected” rally to put in that right shoulder of the potential H&S pattern. This one will be added as an official long setup with a short entry to be triggered on a break below the neckline & trendline. An official setup with price targets will follow soon.
RGA: An Active Short in the P&C Insurance sector. Still looks good as of now with the relief rally taking it back to a slightly above the uptrend line but still below the suggested stop.
ZG: Made a run at the suggested stop but fell just shy. 38.00 is now decent support so a break below that level is likely to take the stock down to at least T1.
ETFC: Backtesting the rising wedge from below, thereby offering another objective entry or add-on.
IWM: Still below the suggested stop despite the recent rally which stalled just shy of the 142.35 resistance level today. Negative divergence on the 60-minuute time frame indicates that the small caps are likely to reverse & start moving lower soon.