While about the only outlook for the stock market that is close to being guaranteed today is one of some more sharp and erratic back & forth price swings, I favor a breakout & rally above these 60-minute falling wedge patterns on QQQ, SPY, /NQ & /ES (Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index futures). I’ve listed my near-term price targets, with the final near-term targets representing about a 5.35% gain from where QQQ & SPY closed yesterday, if hit. *click on first chart to expand, then click on right of each chart to advance*
While the markets could certainly go the other way after the FOMC rate decision scheduled for 2:00 pm EST today, I favor the bullish case for the both technical reasons that I’ve cited in my recent analysis, as well as my expectation that the comments to be released Fed will likely be taken a more dovish than the street was expecting. Of course, my expectations will either be right or wrong & if wrong, the potential for a very sharp & strong selloff is still very real based on both the precarious technical posture of the major stock indices & the current bearish trend.
At this time, I am passing along these price targets & setups as unofficial trade ideas as the risk to taking a position before a major market moving event such as this is quite high although depending on what I see today, I may add one or more index & sector ETFs as official trade setups and/or active trades.
On a final note, it has been my experience that, more often than not, the stock market will experience very sharp & swift near-vertical rips & dips immediately in the wake of a highly anticipated FOMC rate decision, such as this one. Quite often, the initial rip or dip is reversed & it is not unusual to see the second sharp reaction faded as well. Couple that with the recent elevated volatility in the stock market & the chances are very high that the major stock indices will experience some very sharp back & forth swing today that are likely to run any nearby stops. As such, risk-adverse traders might opt to stand aside today & wait for the dust to settle before establishing any new positions while giving any existing positions a little room on the stops today.