Although QQQ, as well as the /ES & /NQ futures, have broken below their 60-min uptrend lines, SPY is still above trend, with a successful test of the 60-minute uptrend line/bottom of the wedge so far today. Sell signal on SPY & the US stock market still pending an impulsive break below.


Keep in mind that we’re probably looking at another week of choppy, indecisive trading, at least up until Fed Chairman Jermone Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee Wednesday and at the Senate Banking Committee Thursday, where he is expected to answer questions on the economy and Fed policy. As of now, the Fed Funds futures are pricing in a 92% chance of a 0.25% rate cut with an 8% chance of a 50 bp cut. As it has become fairly apparent in recent weeks, the stock market has been driven more on the expectation of rate cuts then on fundamentals recently so any changes in the Fed Fund rate, actual or perceived, has the potential to cause sharp swings in the stock market.