SPY Final Target Hit for a 7% Profit

The SPY (S&P 500 Tracking ETF) long swing trade idea has hit the final target, T3 at  279.92, for a 6.6% profit. Consider booking partial or full profits and/or raising stops if holding out for additional gains. Previous & updated 60-minute charts:

click on first chart to expand, then click anywhere on the right of each chart to advance to the next expanded image or pinch zoom on mobile & tablets

I have no desire to reverse this trade from long to short as I still favor a continued move to new highs in the S&P 500 before the next major correction in the market but at this point, the R/R to remain long is no longer clearly favorable IMO. As this was the final target, this trade will now be moved to the Completed Trades archives along with all associated post since the entry on February 12th.

2018-03-13T09:53:35+00:00 Mar 13, 2018 9:52am|Categories: Completed Trades - Long|Tags: |2 Comments


  1. ixtlanian March 13, 2018 9:58 am at 9:58 am

    That 1 penny yesterday was really bugging you, right Randy? 🙂
    Looks like the force is still with you and so far your scenario plays out well. I exited at T2, but kudos to you again for the great analysis.


    • rsotc March 13, 2018 11:10 am at 11:10 am

      It was & I know that might sound odd but it was bugging me because of the sharp increase in recent month of trade ideas that have either fallen just a few cents shy of a price target before reversing or very briefly clipped what I believed to be a well-placed stop loss with the trade going on to play out exactly as expected (the recent UGAZ one of many good examples of that). We’re still off to a very solid start to the year on the official trade ideas with a high success rate & many double-digit gainers & I’m hell-bent to keep that streak going as I think 2018 has the potential to be one of the most lucrative years for swing trading in a long while. Doing so might entail modifying some of the trade parameters on the active trades such as price targets, suggested stops & planned entry (buy/sell) triggers as I believe that one of the keys to successfully navigating the market this year will be flexibility. I might be long & calling for a rally one day then shorting the market hard the next. The ‘short vol’ trade has finally been busted & as such, the days of the steady grind higher where every dip was bought just as soon as it seemed to be getting underway has been & will likely continue to be replaced with sharp swings in the market with much more individual stock & sector rotation than in recent years where nearly all stocks & sectors within the stock market rose in relative unison.

      I was also about to add to this comment section that when T3 on this SPY trade was hit today, I just inserted the updated 60-minute chart with a screenshot that I took today into the post that I had mentioned in video drafting yesterday morning when it looked like T3 was going to be hit shortly after the open. After sending that post, I noticed my comments in the last paragraph about not having any desire to reverse the trade to a short as I was still looking for new highs in the broad market.

      After reviewing the 60-minute charts yesterday following those comments that I made in that draft for the post that I didn’t sent out until T3 was hit today, I became increasingly concerned about the bearish developments on the 60-minute charts, including those negative divergences that were still hanging on by a thread. The bottom line is that while I still prefer not to short SPY at this time, I am warming up to the possibility of shorting QQQ and even more open to shorting some individual stocks with clearly bearish chart patterns.


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