Short-term Targets Hit, Bull Trap Scenario Confirmed

The short-term targets that were posted earlier on the 5-minute charts of the SPY & QQQ have been hit. As predicted, the breakdowns of the bearish rising wedge patterns on the 5-minute time frames led to a sharp reversal back into the much more technically significant 60-minute triangle patterns with the recent breakout now a fake-out, or bull trap. This may have longer-term bearish implications, especially if prices move back down below the bottom of those triangle patterns, which is still an important uptrend line.

With both the short-term & intermediate-term trend indicators still solidly bearish, bullish breakouts are much more likely to fail in the same way that bearish chart pattern breakdowns have a much higher failure rate when the near-term & intermediate-term trend is bullish. As mentioned earlier, two of the most reliable long-term trend indicators are on the cusp of flipping from bullish to bearish but have not done so yet as the weekly L/T trend indicator signal can only be considered relevant on a weekly (end-of-day Friday) close and the end-of-month (Sept 30th) closing values for the monthly trend indicators, both of which were recently covered in detail in this video.

Sep 9, 2015 4:05pm|Categories: Equity Market Analysis|Tags: , , , |Comments Off on Short-term Targets Hit, Bull Trap Scenario Confirmed