Today's reversal was most likely a technical event caused by the SPY's initial tag of key support on the daily time frame while forming a divergent low on this 30 minute frame. The lines (horizontal, Fibs, & downtrend line) in the shaded box are the likely stopping points for this rally.

SPY 30 minute July 7th

SPY 30 minute July 7th

 

That initial tag of support that I am referring to is the same support level that was listed on the SPY daily chart in the June 18th post titled Decent Rally But Nothing Has Changed (first chart below). My expectation is for a resumption of the downtrend that began immediately following that June 18th Fed-induced rally shorting-opp, with a move down to at least the 197.85 level in the SPY.