QQQ Final Target Revised, Closing Trade Early for a 6% Profit

Upon further review of the charts along with other variables, I am revising the final target, T2, from 165.10 to current levels (164.62 or thereabout). This provides for a gain of 5.5% from the entry price of 156.02 less than two weeks ago. Previous & updated 15-minute charts:

Click on first chart to expand, then click on right of each expanded chart to advance to the next full-size image. Pinch-zoom on mobile.

While QQQ could certainly continue higher in the coming days & week, with earnings season now getting underway & this trade providing a modest but relatively quick gain, the risk/reward is not as favorable as I'd like at this time to try to milk out another 3/10ths of 1% on this trade while risking a give back of profits, should the Nasdaq 100 suddenly reverse or find itself on the wrong side of a large earnings-induced gap or other headline risk.

While the Nasdaq 100 certainly has the potential to move higher in the coming days & weeks, a swing or trend trader might just opt to raise their stops to protect point while letting the position ride. The primary risk to such a strategy is the possibility of a large opening gap that bypasses any well-placed stop. This trade & all associated posts will now be moved to the Completed Trades archives.

2018-04-17T11:57:11+00:00Apr 17, 2018 10:00am|Categories: Completed Trades - Long|Tags: |13 Comments


  1. sheldon84 April 17, 2018 10:05 am at 10:05 am

    Thank you Randy and makes sense. I closed my long last eve. Is this now a objective price for a short entry swing trade?

    • rsotc April 17, 2018 10:11 am at 10:11 am

      Possibly but I can’t make a strong enough case for a swing short on QQQ at this time. In fact, I can’t even rule out new highs in QQQ. Best to hold off on adding all but the best looking individual short swing trades for now & especially on the broad index-tracking ETFs as the near-term trend remains bullish since early April.

      • hengliu0714 April 17, 2018 10:22 am at 10:22 am

        Good morning Randy. For NFLX, do you think is now a good time to reenter our short position?

        • rsotc April 17, 2018 10:47 am at 10:47 am

          I think soon but can’t make a decent case to re-short NFLX just yet for those that covered when T1 was hit or anyone looking to start a new short entry. The trend in the broad market is bullish although if I could make a solid case to short NFLX based on the technicals I would.
          A little more upside & the stock will have put in another divergent high, essentially an extension of the divergences that were in place at the previous & still ATH high which we shorted it near last month before that sharp correction.
          The second mouse gets the cheese & although I can’t wait to short the next major leg down in NFLX, which I think will be much larger than the ~18% correction off the March high, I just can’t make a case to even take a partial short position here at this time.

          • hengliu0714 April 17, 2018 11:38 am at 11:38 am

            Thanks for your reply Randy. I will wait and see if your scenario plays out (Divergent high).

          • jegersmart April 17, 2018 1:47 pm at 1:47 pm

            Looks like NFLX will make a very divergent high soon…..

          • sur non April 17, 2018 4:30 pm at 4:30 pm

            …I need more mice… : >}

  2. rsotc April 17, 2018 10:23 am at 10:23 am

    One of several factors prompting me to close out this trade early was the fact that QQQ has now hit the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the move off the March 13th top to the April 2nd low. Additionally, QQQ is now oversold on the 60-minute time frame (above 70 on the RSI-14) with the potential negative divergence still yet to be taken out on the 60-minute PPO, although it will be if the Q’s continue much higher. I also corrected a typo in the first chart that was sent out in the email notification which incorrectly listed the current price level in the call-out although the current price was highlighted on the price scale to the right of the chart.
    With earnings season now getting underway, my focus will turn to the best-looking trade setups on sector ETF as well as individual stocks, ideally those that have already reported earnings so as avoid establishing new swing trade positions just in front of earnings which can result in a gap against your position & potentially beyond any well-placed protective stop-loss order. Swing & trend trading during earnings season, especially in light of the recent sharp increase in volatility, is akin to navigating a minefield as one must be careful where they step (i.e.- holding certain positions with a history of large gaps into earnings). When in doubt, keep things light or stand aside & just watch.

  3. jegersmart April 17, 2018 10:39 am at 10:39 am

    Thanks RP, would you look to adjust targets for XLV too? I have a current target of just under 86….TIA!

    • rsotc April 17, 2018 10:54 am at 10:54 am

      Here’s an updated 60-minute chart of XLV with what I believe contains the minimum (where XLV is now) & maximum (52 area) price targets for this bounce before a meaningful reversal. I can’t say with a fair degree of conviction which, if any of these resistance levels (unadjusted price targets) will cap this advance but I can say that two viable options are 1) to let the position ride with a trailing stop or manually ratcheting up stops along the way and 2) start taking partial profits as each target is hit (or a combination of 1 & 2). G-luck & congrats so far!

      • jegersmart April 17, 2018 12:17 pm at 12:17 pm

        can’t see a chart?:O

        • rsotc April 18, 2018 10:27 pm at 10:27 pm

          Sorry about that. Looks like the embed code for the chart didn’t work & I’m still catching up on my reply/comment notifications. Here’s that same chart (from yesterday/Tuesday morning) with the potential targets (actual resistance levels) for XLV. It backfilled about 2/3rds of that gap today with the next resistance level the top of the gap around 83.68.

  4. hope75515 April 17, 2018 10:43 am at 10:43 am

    Thanks-better to protect profits.


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