GLD GDX ABX GG NEM Long-term Outlook (video)

In the comment section below a post made earlier today, I was asked if I would consider going long the miners, should they break above the recent "high & tight flag/pennant" that appears to be forming in GDX. My answer was no (along with a brief explanation which can be viewed under that previous post) and this video covers in more detail as to why I still believe the R/R for going long the miners at this time is unfavorable.

The video focuses on the long-term (1o-year weekly) charts of GLD, GDX and the 3 largest components of GDX which account for over 1/5th of the returns in GDX. Several long-term upside price targets as well as potential pullback targets in these ETFs & individual mining stocks are highlighted as well as a ideal scenario that could play out in the coming months (which would be near-term bearish but longer-term bullish).

Feb 23, 2016 12:17pm|Categories: Gold & Commodities|Tags: , , , , , |3 Comments


  1. RickySixx6 February 23, 2016 12:53 pm at 12:53 pm

    Towards the end … you mentioned the possibility of a Fib retracement of 61.8% and of course 50%. Would a 61.8% still count as a head and shoulder move or would you only label it as such if it were a 50% pull back from the latest burst?

    The reason why I ask is because I’m not sure if it matters much. Either way 50% or 61.8% retracement should be signs for people to back up the truck and load up one last time before the fireworks start over the next X years.


  2. rsotc February 23, 2016 1:14 pm at 1:14 pm

    @rickysixx6 Should the IHS scenario in ABX start to play out with the stock reversing soon, ideally you’d want to see the pullback end around that 38.2% in order to form nice symmetry on the pattern (as that would make the RS symmetrical with the LS). The better the symmetry on H&S and IHS patterns, the more likely the patterns are to play out.

    However, that’s just one possibility. The main point that I wanted to impress with the Fibonacci retracement levels was to quantify just how much ABX (and GDX) could pullback without negating the recent bullish developments (i.e.- the breakouts above the primary downtrend lines & horizontal resistance levels in most of the miners following that divergent low on the weekly charts).


    • RickySixx6 February 23, 2016 1:50 pm at 1:50 pm

      Ok, so thats what i wanted to verify. At the end of the day, symmetry does matter. Thank you


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