EUR/USD continues to play out as expected with the call for a pullback earlier this week also starting to unfold following the previous bear trap/false breakdown scenario now clearly in play.
EUR-USD daily Aug 30th
On Tuesday, I started calling for a 50/50 chance of a pullback in the EUR/USD (i.e.- Euro down, US Dollar up), increasing the odds of a pullback in the pair to 60-65% yesterday and with the EUR/USD now moving impulsively lower following the breakdown & backtest of the 60-minute uptrend line on the heels of the recent divergent high, I will bump the odds of additional downside in the Euro/upside in the dollar to 75-80% over the next few sessions.
EUR-USD 60-min Aug 30th
Should that prove to be the case, a rising Dollar would likely put continued pressure on gold in the very near term. However, I remain longer-term bearish on the US Dollar/bullish on the Euro & I’m only looking for a relatively minor pullback at this time with my minimum & maximum pullback targets shown on the 60-minute chart above.