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Crude Oil & Natural Gas Forecast

$WTIC (Light Crude Oil spot price) is back-testing the apex of the recently broken bearish rising wedge pattern while the negative divergences on the RSI & MACD continue to build, warning of a likely correction that would bring WTI back to the 42.30-43.00 area.

$WTIC daily May 16th

$WTIC daily May 16th


$NATGAS (Natural Gas spot price) closed just above the 2.00 support level following a break below the uptrend line off the March bottom. A break below the 2.00 support level, which appears likely, would open the door for another move down to the 1.90 area (another 5% downside in nat gas prices).

$NATGAS daily May 16th

$NATGAS daily May 16th

May 16, 2016 9:49pm|Categories: Gold & Commodities|Tags: , , , |6 Comments


  1. Profile gravatar of jacant
    jacant May 17, 2016 2:26 am at 2:26 am

    Thanks for the update Randy!

  2. Profile gravatar of lee1
    lee1 May 17, 2016 6:40 am at 6:40 am

    Timely update as I was just starting to think of maybe getting into oil stocks thinking oil continues to run so will wait to see if oil does correct to your level. Longer term i still believe oil will see 50 this year and 60+ next year so maybe a pullback in oil would give a good entry into some oil stocks.

  3. Profile gravatar of lee1
    lee1 May 17, 2016 6:43 am at 6:43 am

    I see there are no more oil long setups/trades (WMB was an awesome call of yours but you closed that one), so maybe more oil/energy plays will pop up on your radar if crude ends up pulling back to your expected 43ish level.

    • Profile gravatar of rsotc
      rsotc May 17, 2016 8:58 am at 8:58 am

      Lee- Absolutely. I’ve remained longer-term bullish on crude throughout 2016 & will most likely look to add back some more energy swing trades & growth & income trades when the time is right. Still favoring more downside in the near-term for the energy stocks but will be keeping a close eye on the sector for the next objective long entry.

  4. Profile gravatar of lee1
    lee1 May 17, 2016 12:20 pm at 12:20 pm

    Your wmb keeps ripping higher. A little frustrating watching oil continue higher so now wondering if it can indeed retrace to around 43 before going higher. Like the overall market, oil has no business being this high based on fundamentals alone but here we are.

    • Profile gravatar of rsotc
      rsotc May 17, 2016 12:36 pm at 12:36 pm

      lee1- Today’s move in WMB is largely or solely due to a technical breakout above the primary downtrend line which was the final target (T2) for the recent long trade (and exactly where WMB pulled back a few weeks ago following the initial tag of that level). Could run from here but I don’t have any desire to take this breakout but might be interested in a few weeks or so on a possible backtest of the TL.


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