QQQ has rallied into the R2 resistance (725.50ish/top of ‘optimal’ shoring zone) on my 5-minute chart, offering an objective short entry as would any additional push into, but not above the R3 zone/”still objective shorting zone”. Previous (yesterday) & updated 5-minute charts below.

QQQ 5m June 8th

QQQ 5m June 8th

QQQ 5m June 9th

QQQ 5m June 9th

Zooming out to the more significant daily time frames, all of the major stock indices, including “THE” stock market*, VTI, have formed potential** bear flag continuation patterns. Daily charts of VTI, SPY, & QQQ, including the measured targets, assuming that A) the bear flags do end up keeping their current symmetry, B) do go on to trigger a sell signal soon, and C) reversing here at the highlighted resistance or not much higher, as the measured target is the distance of the flagpole, added to the highest point of the flag before it breaks down.

VTI daily June 9th

VTI daily June 9th

SPY daily June 9th

SPY daily June 9th

QQQ daily June 9th

QQQ daily June 9th

*Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF seeks to track the investment performance of the CRSP US Total Market Index, which represents approximately 100% of the investable U.S. stock market and includes large-, mid-, small-, and micro-cap stocks regularly traded on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq. The fund invests by sampling the index, meaning that it holds a broadly diversified collection of securities that, in the aggregate, approximates the full Index in terms of key characteristics.

**A potential bearish chart pattern is just that: a potential setup requiring a sell signal/entry trigger. In this case, that would be a solid breakdown below the bear flag continuation pattern (lower uptrend line).

I also wanted to share my reply to a question put to me in a couple of the recent comment sections under the home page posts:

Q: How is SpaceX[sic] going to effect our now short position? Thx

My reply: Short answer: I have no idea. It all depends on how it performs 15 days post-IPO (that’s when it will start inclusion in the Q’s), although from what I understand, it will only have about a 0.47%-0.70% weighting in the Nasdaq 100 & no weighting (not included) in the S&P 500, so really, not much other than maybe a psychological impact to some degree should it plunge or rip, post-IPO.

Additional info on SpaceX via Perplexity (I cannot guarantee, nor have I vetted the following for accuracy. As such, one might want to verify via other sources):

Following its initial public offering (IPO), SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) will be fast-tracked into the Nasdaq-100, CRSP Total Market Index, and Russell 1000, but it has been explicitly excluded from the S&P 500 for the near future. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Because index weightings are heavily dictated by the value of a company’s publicly traded shares (free-float) rather than total market value, SpaceX’s massive $1.75 trillion to $1.77 trillion total valuation will be heavily discounted down to its $75 billion public float when indexes calculate its footprint. [4, 6, 7]

Planned Index Inclusions and Expected Weightings [8]

Index [1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9] Expected Inclusion Timeline Projected Index Weighting Primary Tracking Funds Impacted
Nasdaq-100 15 trading days post-IPO 0.47% to 0.70% (Under 1% total) Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), QQQM
CRSP Large Cap Growth 5 trading days post-IPO 0.17% to 0.26% Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG)
CRSP Total Market Index 5 trading days post-IPO 0.07% to 0.11% (Under 0.20%) Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI)
Russell 1000 5 trading days post-IPO ~0.15% to 0.22% (Estimated) iShares Russell 1000 ETF (IWB)
S&P 500 Excluded indefinitely 0.00% SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)

Crucial Mechanics Behind the Weightings

1. The Nasdaq-100 “Float-Multiplier” Rule Boosts Weighting [10]

To prevent mega-cap companies with tiny public floats from being completely marginalized in the index, Nasdaq implemented a rules change. It will apply a 3x multiplier to SpaceX’s public float, boosting its adjusted index weight valuation from $75 billion to roughly $225 billion. This adjustment lifts its weight in the Invesco QQQ Trust to the 0.6% to 0.7% range, making it an immediate top-25 holding. [4, 7]

2. Total Market vs. Free-Float Discrepancy

While SpaceX will technically debut as the 7th largest public company in the U.S. by total market cap, Elon Musk’s retainment of controlling shares and strict insider lockup agreements mean the free-float is only ~4% to 5% of the company. Standard float-adjusted indexes like the CRSP Total Market Index will therefore allocate less than 0.20% of their portfolios to the stock. [4, 6, 7, 11, 12]

3. Why the S&P 500 Rejected Fast-Tracking

On June 4, 2026, the S&P Dow Jones Index Committee formally rejected a proposal to alter its entry rules for mega-IPOs. SpaceX cannot enter the S&P 500 due to two firm criteria: [4, 5, 13]
  • The Profitability Rule: Companies must post four consecutive quarters of cumulative positive GAAP earnings. SpaceX’s ongoing capital spend on Starlink and Starship means it operates at a net GAAP loss.
  • Seasoning Requirement: A newly public company must trade on an exchange for at least 12 months before consideration. [4, 13, 14, 15, 16]
Instead, SpaceX will initially be placed into the S&P Completion Index, meaning mid-cap and extended-market funds will hold it, while large-cap S&P 500 funds will not. [17]
If you are tracking how this historic public offering alters your portfolio, would you like me to look into how much cash passive funds must liquidate from other Mag-7 stocks to buy into SpaceX, or look at specific thematic space ETFs changing their rules for day-one inclusion? [10, 18, 19]