This 4 hour chart shows my preferred scenario for TLT with the initial, and possibly final (TBD) target. The 38.2% fib retracement is not only a commonly hit level on counter-trend bounces but also happens to line up well with horizontal resistance, including volume at price (VAP) resistance, as defined by the top of that large histogram cluster. My best guess is that if the market does experience additional downside in the coming days to weeks, then treasuries will likely rise due to flight to safety (and of course, the technical posture of this chart).
