i’m feeling a little better now but it felt like it stepped in front of a moving bus earlier today. i’m one of those people that hardly every get sick but 2 weeks of 2 young boys coughing all over you will eventually do the trick. as i’m looking the charts over tonight, there’s really nothing that changes my view that market will most likely continue to move lower. to play devil’s advocate, i will point out that the SPY hammered off a key support level.
the first chart below is the last daily SPY chart that i posted back on april 4th, highlighting the breakdown of the secondary parallel channel as well as the first key support level (daily target). today’s hammer off that support level could definitely be interpreted as bullish so i will point it out but again, many of the things that i’ve pointed out in recent weeks, including the longer-term charts, as well as a lot of recent developments convince me that the odds continue to favor prices moving lower before considerably higher. my preferred scenario would have the market continue to move lower this week, preferably with one or more big down days. i am aware that prices moved back above the bottom of the 60 minute support ranges but until/unless we see much follow-thru to the upside, i am neither concerned nor surprised that happened today. if we do continue to move higher for the remainder of the week, i will reassess my bearish bias i will post some objective stop levels for as many of the outstanding short trade ideas that i can.
