At the risk of jumping the gun & posting this too early as the odds of it proving to be a whipsaw are still high as this sharp post-market reversal has been very swift & still in progress (full disclaimer), I do want to get this one out as a breakdown is a breakdown so basically I’ll take it on face value until & unless the breakdown is reversed.
For reasons I can’t comprehend, the masses figured they would buy QQQ hard when Trump came to the podium to announce his new tariffs. They ran QQQ up 1.75% in just over 5 minutes with that near-vertical spike running right into key 480 price resistance and a perfect backtest, followed by a hard reversal off that uptrend line, both of which were highlighted in today’s video as offering the next objective short entries or add-ons, should QQQ get there.
Immediately upon kissing that uptrend line from below, /NQ & QQQ reversed & plunged 4.75%, cutting right through that key horizontal price support level of 19,300, which I referred to in today’s video as my “lights out” level (click here to view). So bascially, when you have such sharp back & forth swings in the market triggered by a fundamental catalyst such as an announcement of a change in the Federal Funds rate, big earnings report, or, in this case, the announcement of the new tariffs, the odds of a whipsaw (or multiple whipsaws) are elevated until the dust finally settles. We will most likely know in the overnight futures session and/or no later than tomorrow if this breakdown below key support sticks or was just another whipsaw.
Once again, a breakdown is a breakdown, so until & unless it is clearly reversed, I will treat it as such. Those doing the same (adding to short positions) should set stops commensurate with your unique price target(s) and average entry price. One could also wait to see how the market trades tomorrow once the regular session is underway, although there is always the chance of a large gap in either direction, with the potential for an outsized downside gap to deny an “objective” short entry or add-on. 60-minute charts of /NQ & QQQ (with QQQ post-market candles in white) below.
NQ 60m April 2nd
QQQ 60m April 2nd