• schooner posted an update 1 year, 5 months ago

    Futures making the case that Friday’s long-legged doji/hammers put a bottom in the market for the time being. See how they open.

  • schooner posted a new activity comment 1 year, 5 months ago

    Will be very interesting to see if the market closes with hammer like candles of which there are a lot right now, or whether it sells off into the close. If it doesn’t sell off then it’s still awfully resilient. We’ll see.

    • In 3 hours, almost back to where we were. Flynn issue, what issue?
      Machines are betting nothing will come out of it, so they are resetting. Just look at XBI. Never mind that buying volume is very light, we have to get back to positive. Instead of the word resilient, I would use fearless.

  • schooner posted a new activity comment 1 year, 5 months ago

    It’s on the Flynn news and suggestions he will testify against Trump. A bolt from the blue for the markets this morning. So far reaction has been sharp but not yet huge. That said, this is likely to put a cloud on everything for a while. When I first saw the sell off I thought that maybe the tax bill had blown up, but no, it looks like it will…[Read more]

    • It wasn’t the speed of the selloff that amazed me but the speed of the recovery. I am expecting a feedback loop to develop when the hard selling starts, but the snapback, just unreal.

      • Will be very interesting to see if the market closes with hammer like candles of which there are a lot right now, or whether it sells off into the close. If it doesn’t sell off then it’s still awfully resilient. We’ll see.

        • In 3 hours, almost back to where we were. Flynn issue, what issue?
          Machines are betting nothing will come out of it, so they are resetting. Just look at XBI. Never mind that buying volume is very light, we have to get back to positive. Instead of the word resilient, I would use fearless.

  • schooner posted a new activity comment 1 year, 5 months ago

    Yes, you’re right, there is some late session selling in the Financials but not much in the Tannies. I suppose at this point it just looks like normal profit taking after an explosive move to me. Can you believe the trannies are up over 7% in three sessions. I’ve never seen that before. Those candles, unless we get a big selloff in the next 45…[Read more]

  • schooner posted an update 1 year, 5 months ago

    FWIW in the ongoing debate we are all having as to whether the market is blowing off or just rotating, and obviously we won’t know until we know, the one thing I am struck by right now is the incredible strength we are seeing with massive volume taking financials and especially transports to new highs. Usually when those two sectors are making new…[Read more]

    • We may finally see a chink in the armor of financials. They are being sold off now at the end of the session taking IWM lower with them. Incredible run nonetheless. I was almost ready to stop out of my FAZ short started yesterday, but was going to hold until Monday. Good thing I did.
      Today is also month end some there may be some window dressing…[Read more]

      • Yes, you’re right, there is some late session selling in the Financials but not much in the Tannies. I suppose at this point it just looks like normal profit taking after an explosive move to me. Can you believe the trannies are up over 7% in three sessions. I’ve never seen that before. Those candles, unless we get a big selloff in the next 45…[Read more]

  • schooner posted an update 1 year, 5 months ago

    First off I’d like to wish Randy and everyone here all the best for Thanksgiving…

    It sure looks like we are in a minor 5th wave that will extend as far as it will extend…not possible to predict…but likely, as Randy said, that these new highs aren’t likely to run away….fifth waves come with divergence which is another reason that this…[Read more]

    • Just wanted to say that your comments are much appreciated, schooner.
      Have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

      • Also wanted to wish Randy and posters a Happy Thanksgiving! Thanks schooner for the comments and the link.

    • Happy Thanksgiving to you & everyone else. Thank you for sharing the link.

  • schooner posted a new activity comment 1 year, 6 months ago

    FWIW noticed on the IWM daily that the MACD is VERY close to crossing up right near the zero line after being under the signal line for 6 weeks. It is either going to be turned back in the next day or two or cross up. I think that will be important and probably confirm direction.

    • Agreed, nice observation. PPO signal line (very close cousin to the MACD) on the daily chart also backtesting the zero line on IWM. A solid cross below would be bearish & bullish if the MACD & PPO bounce off the zer line & turn up here.
      Barring a relatively brief & extremely shallow whipsaw signal cross below the zero line back in late…[Read more]

  • Just looked at the 5 minute chart and I see how MST briefly undercut the 20 by about 20 cents (coincidence?) and then immediately printed a big hammer on the 5 minute chart to regain the 20. Just confirms to me what a big player the 20 is right now.

  • Just had a look at MSFT. I see it has found support dead on the 20 day MA. I’d say that’s critical because if it takes that out then it could fill the gap. But so far the 20 is holding it.

  • schooner posted an update 1 year, 6 months ago

    I’m sorry I have to leave for the rest of the day but it does look increasingly likely that yesterday may have been a key reversal day with that brief intraday undercut of key support levels that probably washed out a lot of shorts. If things don’t reverse later in the session then I suspect that the action of the last couple of weeks was yet…[Read more]

    • Certainly looking that way so far. This will either prove to be a trend day, with the markets continuing to rally into the close or we get a reversal this afternoon, which would need to be substantial. Already the near-term trend off the Nov 8th highs has been called into question on QQQ as the Q’s are now testing those highs. SPY still below the…[Read more]

  • schooner posted a new activity comment 1 year, 6 months ago

    Yes, finally something to day trade!

  • schooner posted an update 1 year, 6 months ago

    Very interesting action so far today. Both the SPX and the SPEW took out key support lines — the SPX took out the neckline support at 2566 and then reversed on the next 60 minute candle. The SPEW took out the bottom of the triangle and then also reversed the same way. If these prove to be false breaks they will set the stage for another attempt…[Read more]

    • At least we have volatility back and I am not talking about the VIX, but the price swings. Yesterday and today made good days for quick swings in XBI, for example. Even the indices swung around 0.5% or more on an intra-day basis. Just look at IWM today, came back from a 1% loss to almost unchanged.
      On Friday being Opex day, I would expect the…[Read more]

  • schooner posted a new activity comment 1 year, 6 months ago

    Short term looks like Qs put in a double bottom with divergence on the 5 minute chart. Now, just like the SPY can they rally back into the gap…or will they roll over again??????

  • schooner posted an update 1 year, 6 months ago

    In the post I just put up I had meant to also add that SPEW (equal weighted SPX) is still trading inside its triangle. Right in the middle of it. That needs to close below the lower bound of the triangle for us to get something going (along with the SPX taking out 2566)

  • schooner posted an update 1 year, 6 months ago

    The key is 2566 on the SPX. We came down and tested it this morning and bounced. That is clearly the line in the sand for the market. That has also become a potential neckline of what is now a well formed H&S. But until 2566 is taken out on a closing basis the market will not have cracked. Also, we are still trading right in the middle of the…[Read more]

  • schooner posted a new activity comment 1 year, 6 months ago

    Thanks very much for the explanation of all the reasons you prefer the XES. I had never paid attention to it. Now I will.

  • schooner posted an update 1 year, 6 months ago

    Randy, I\’m curious why you like XES as opposed to OIH? The charts look pretty much the same to me but with a lot more liquidity in the OIH. Thanks.

    • Just to clarify, while I liked XES for the past couple of weeks on that thrust up to form the RS, I stopped “liking it” last week when it hit the NL while very overbought. Just kidding as I suspect you are referring to why I would chart and/or trade it over OIH… good question.
      First off, I have a preference for trading & charting the “X..” etfs…[Read more]

      • Thanks very much for the explanation of all the reasons you prefer the XES. I had never paid attention to it. Now I will.

  • schooner posted an update 1 year, 6 months ago

    Thinking tomorrow might tell the tale for the market — I’m watching the S&P Equal Weighted Index. It has formed a nice triangle that “should” be a continuation triangle for what looks to me like a 5th wave of the move from the Aug. lows. I suspect that this average will tell us whether what we’ve had in the last two weeks was yet another tiny…[Read more]

  • schooner posted a new activity comment 1 year, 6 months ago

    I wonder what the fundamentals are behind this sell off — oil prices are up and high yield usually likes that, rates are down a bit and high yield usually likes that…I wonder if it could have something to do with whatever is or isn\’t in the tax bill? Anybody got any thoughts?

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