• FrancisQ posted a new activity comment 1 week, 6 days ago

    Dun worry…there will be a lot more of this unreality to come

  • FrancisQ posted a new activity comment 1 week, 6 days ago

    After last Thursday, i expected the market to follow through its downside to test the lower TL on Friday. It didn’t. This morning open, it did. Mission accomplished.
    .
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/Tn0cbSmd/

  • FrancisQ posted a new activity comment 1 week, 6 days ago

    Bottoming. Still above support. DL is still in place. Same old, same old.
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/3Ocu87bc/

  • FrancisQ posted a new activity comment 1 week, 6 days ago

    Failed breakdown on rising TL. Bullish.
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/QwmMB0i4/
    .
    Yep, hourly DL is extended.
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/0nQ3OJ74/
    .
    Expect to break above this current consolidation box pretty soon.

  • FrancisQ posted a new activity comment 1 week, 6 days ago

    No stop because it’s a pretty small position. Despite the large drop (not large for this stock), it’s still within wedge, and the DLis still intact.
    .
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/u23GFJh0/

  • FrancisQ posted a new activity comment 2 weeks ago

    I don’t know what you mean when you said “talking my book”. If that implies ramping an index, i don’t see how it’s even possible given the small number of members in this forum.
    .
    Even with large number, can’t see everyone is agreeing with me.
    .
    In short, highly improbable.
    .
    If i’m a high influential name on social media like Twitter with 50,000…[Read more]

  • FrancisQ posted a new activity comment 2 weeks ago

    No one indicator / ratio chart / chart pattern / etc would be infallible. It’s the weight of the evidence, which i keep mentioning.
    .
    As i said, what i show here is less than 10% of the weight of evidence that we’re at the start of a bull market.
    .
    Since you dun see the other 90%, i don’t blame your skepticism. Nor am i trying to convince you one…[Read more]

  • FrancisQ posted a new activity comment 2 weeks ago

    As human being, none of us are capable of digesting all the data / variable / conditions that could influence the stock market. Thinking we can is arrogance. But fortunately, prices capture everything that impacts the stock market. And we have the tool to do so, it’s called TA. Not the perfect tool (there’s none), but the best we have.

    • None of my comments were aimed at you Francis, you are clearly a skilled operator and you react when asked. My comments were more at others who make generic comments with no substance, my theory for the motivation for this type of behaviour was potentially people talking their book. I enjoy your contributions. Let’s see what this week brings!

  • FrancisQ posted a new activity comment 2 weeks ago

    Q4 2018 saw the largest fund outflow in the history of stock market both in dollar terms as well as relative or percentage term. There’s some reversal of flow in the last 5 months, but only showed up as a blip. Same thing happened to hedge fund’s percentage of equity holding, the lowest for many decades.
    .
    I can’t imagine the rally stock market…[Read more]

  • FrancisQ posted a new activity comment 2 weeks ago

    Because Mr. Market is my boss, whatever he says, i replied “yes sir, yes sir”. As for Ms Economy, i don’t give a hoot about it because she’s not the boss of mine.
    .
    Know who’s the boss. Don’t kiss the wrong ass.
    .
    The trick is in the listening skill, which is called TA.

    • I appreciate your view and I think it is the best way to play things. But the way I see it is that if the economy slows down then there is less money to throw in to the stock market, indeed less wealth is produced that can be used. So for my the risk reward is not favorable for a rise, I prefer to play the risk reward game. The market is a sum of…[Read more]

      • Q4 2018 saw the largest fund outflow in the history of stock market both in dollar terms as well as relative or percentage term. There’s some reversal of flow in the last 5 months, but only showed up as a blip. Same thing happened to hedge fund’s percentage of equity holding, the lowest for many decades.
        .
        I can’t imagine the rally stock market…[Read more]

    • I think my only comment here is that I will continue to watch the tape as best I can. I don’t like the ratios or correlations beyond mild interest because they look like they work until they don’t. As I said before, I won’t be chasing *indices* higher at this point mainly because there is no data up here that can give clues. I will however go long…[Read more]

      • No one indicator / ratio chart / chart pattern / etc would be infallible. It’s the weight of the evidence, which i keep mentioning.
        .
        As i said, what i show here is less than 10% of the weight of evidence that we’re at the start of a bull market.
        .
        Since you dun see the other 90%, i don’t blame your skepticism. Nor am i trying to convince you one…[Read more]

      • I don’t know what you mean when you said “talking my book”. If that implies ramping an index, i don’t see how it’s even possible given the small number of members in this forum.
        .
        Even with large number, can’t see everyone is agreeing with me.
        .
        In short, highly improbable.
        .
        If i’m a high influential name on social media like Twitter with 50,000…[Read more]

    • As human being, none of us are capable of digesting all the data / variable / conditions that could influence the stock market. Thinking we can is arrogance. But fortunately, prices capture everything that impacts the stock market. And we have the tool to do so, it’s called TA. Not the perfect tool (there’s none), but the best we have.

      • None of my comments were aimed at you Francis, you are clearly a skilled operator and you react when asked. My comments were more at others who make generic comments with no substance, my theory for the motivation for this type of behaviour was potentially people talking their book. I enjoy your contributions. Let’s see what this week brings!

  • FrancisQ posted a new activity comment 2 weeks ago

    There’re 2 approaches to trading / investing.
    .
    1st Approach
    ===========
    You tell the market what it should do. You can give a long list of reasons why it should collapse. I have seen somebody in the trading room did just that in Jan this year. He listed 30 reasons why market should roll over. I don’t know if those reasons are valid or not, i…[Read more]

    • Because Mr. Market is my boss, whatever he says, i replied “yes sir, yes sir”. As for Ms Economy, i don’t give a hoot about it because she’s not the boss of mine.
      .
      Know who’s the boss. Don’t kiss the wrong ass.
      .
      The trick is in the listening skill, which is called TA.

      • I appreciate your view and I think it is the best way to play things. But the way I see it is that if the economy slows down then there is less money to throw in to the stock market, indeed less wealth is produced that can be used. So for my the risk reward is not favorable for a rise, I prefer to play the risk reward game. The market is a sum of…[Read more]

        • Q4 2018 saw the largest fund outflow in the history of stock market both in dollar terms as well as relative or percentage term. There’s some reversal of flow in the last 5 months, but only showed up as a blip. Same thing happened to hedge fund’s percentage of equity holding, the lowest for many decades.
          .
          I can’t imagine the rally stock market…[Read more]

      • I think my only comment here is that I will continue to watch the tape as best I can. I don’t like the ratios or correlations beyond mild interest because they look like they work until they don’t. As I said before, I won’t be chasing *indices* higher at this point mainly because there is no data up here that can give clues. I will however go long…[Read more]

        • No one indicator / ratio chart / chart pattern / etc would be infallible. It’s the weight of the evidence, which i keep mentioning.
          .
          As i said, what i show here is less than 10% of the weight of evidence that we’re at the start of a bull market.
          .
          Since you dun see the other 90%, i don’t blame your skepticism. Nor am i trying to convince you one…[Read more]

        • I don’t know what you mean when you said “talking my book”. If that implies ramping an index, i don’t see how it’s even possible given the small number of members in this forum.
          .
          Even with large number, can’t see everyone is agreeing with me.
          .
          In short, highly improbable.
          .
          If i’m a high influential name on social media like Twitter with 50,000…[Read more]

      • As human being, none of us are capable of digesting all the data / variable / conditions that could influence the stock market. Thinking we can is arrogance. But fortunately, prices capture everything that impacts the stock market. And we have the tool to do so, it’s called TA. Not the perfect tool (there’s none), but the best we have.

        • None of my comments were aimed at you Francis, you are clearly a skilled operator and you react when asked. My comments were more at others who make generic comments with no substance, my theory for the motivation for this type of behaviour was potentially people talking their book. I enjoy your contributions. Let’s see what this week brings!

  • FrancisQ posted a new activity comment 2 weeks ago

    That late cycle theory is wearing thin after 5 years of usage. Australia’s last recession is 26 years ago.
    .
    Once again, as i said many times before, while there’s a correlation between the economy and the market, they’re far from simple and clear. I have made many comments because about this, and i won’t say any more on the subject. You can read…[Read more]

    • There’re 2 approaches to trading / investing.
      .
      1st Approach
      ===========
      You tell the market what it should do. You can give a long list of reasons why it should collapse. I have seen somebody in the trading room did just that in Jan this year. He listed 30 reasons why market should roll over. I don’t know if those reasons are valid or not, i…[Read more]

      • Because Mr. Market is my boss, whatever he says, i replied “yes sir, yes sir”. As for Ms Economy, i don’t give a hoot about it because she’s not the boss of mine.
        .
        Know who’s the boss. Don’t kiss the wrong ass.
        .
        The trick is in the listening skill, which is called TA.

        • I appreciate your view and I think it is the best way to play things. But the way I see it is that if the economy slows down then there is less money to throw in to the stock market, indeed less wealth is produced that can be used. So for my the risk reward is not favorable for a rise, I prefer to play the risk reward game. The market is a sum of…[Read more]

          • Q4 2018 saw the largest fund outflow in the history of stock market both in dollar terms as well as relative or percentage term. There’s some reversal of flow in the last 5 months, but only showed up as a blip. Same thing happened to hedge fund’s percentage of equity holding, the lowest for many decades.
            .
            I can’t imagine the rally stock market…[Read more]

        • I think my only comment here is that I will continue to watch the tape as best I can. I don’t like the ratios or correlations beyond mild interest because they look like they work until they don’t. As I said before, I won’t be chasing *indices* higher at this point mainly because there is no data up here that can give clues. I will however go long…[Read more]

          • No one indicator / ratio chart / chart pattern / etc would be infallible. It’s the weight of the evidence, which i keep mentioning.
            .
            As i said, what i show here is less than 10% of the weight of evidence that we’re at the start of a bull market.
            .
            Since you dun see the other 90%, i don’t blame your skepticism. Nor am i trying to convince you one…[Read more]

          • I don’t know what you mean when you said “talking my book”. If that implies ramping an index, i don’t see how it’s even possible given the small number of members in this forum.
            .
            Even with large number, can’t see everyone is agreeing with me.
            .
            In short, highly improbable.
            .
            If i’m a high influential name on social media like Twitter with 50,000…[Read more]

        • As human being, none of us are capable of digesting all the data / variable / conditions that could influence the stock market. Thinking we can is arrogance. But fortunately, prices capture everything that impacts the stock market. And we have the tool to do so, it’s called TA. Not the perfect tool (there’s none), but the best we have.

          • None of my comments were aimed at you Francis, you are clearly a skilled operator and you react when asked. My comments were more at others who make generic comments with no substance, my theory for the motivation for this type of behaviour was potentially people talking their book. I enjoy your contributions. Let’s see what this week brings!

  • FrancisQ posted a new activity comment 2 weeks ago

    These are just a small sample (about 5%) of all the data and charts that composed of the weight of evidence i’m talking about. Showing all will result in a 10,000 words post. Are you gonna pay me for that effort?

  • FrancisQ posted a new activity comment 2 weeks ago

    Oh…what’s the most important driver of U.S. economy? It’s the consumer spending. It accounts for 75% of the GDP growth. That’s why it’s important.
    .
    Look at the chart of MA, V, and PYPL and tells me consumer spending is in trouble.
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/8mvjBcrg/
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/90dD86yO/

  • FrancisQ posted a new activity comment 2 weeks ago

    What makes the market’s peak in Jan 2018 a real ATH, and Oct 2018’s peak a fake ATH?
    .
    As these 3 ratio charts above (and many more, SOXX is another example) that while SPY make another high in Oct 2018, many important indexes like XLF, XHB, SOXX, etc continue to fall / underperformed. So what kept the market up from Jan to Oct 2018 is only a…[Read more]

  • FrancisQ posted a new activity comment 2 weeks ago

    More weight pf the evidence. Is housing market mportant for the economy? I guess it is. Let’s look at XHB /SPY ratio.
    .
    Again, like XLF / SPY, this ratio (XHB / SPY) peaked in the real ATH of SPY in Jan 2018, and continue to fall as SPY made its fake ATH in Oct 2018.
    .
    XHB has broke out in Jan this year and still in an uptrend (not down trend like…[Read more]

  • FrancisQ posted an update 2 weeks ago

    Hey @snp you asked to to give my view about the general market. Here it is. While ii answer your question, but i’m actually addressing this to others.
    .
    The DL in IWM/SPY ratio chart i pointed out (6 days ago according to the timestamp of that post) has played out nicely with a breakout last…[Read more]

    • More weight pf the evidence. Is housing market mportant for the economy? I guess it is. Let’s look at XHB /SPY ratio.
      .
      Again, like XLF / SPY, this ratio (XHB / SPY) peaked in the real ATH of SPY in Jan 2018, and continue to fall as SPY made its fake ATH in Oct 2018.
      .
      XHB has broke out in Jan this year and still in an uptrend (not down trend like…[Read more]

    • What makes the market’s peak in Jan 2018 a real ATH, and Oct 2018’s peak a fake ATH?
      .
      As these 3 ratio charts above (and many more, SOXX is another example) that while SPY make another high in Oct 2018, many important indexes like XLF, XHB, SOXX, etc continue to fall / underperformed. So what kept the market up from Jan to Oct 2018 is only a…[Read more]

    • Oh…what’s the most important driver of U.S. economy? It’s the consumer spending. It accounts for 75% of the GDP growth. That’s why it’s important.
      .
      Look at the chart of MA, V, and PYPL and tells me consumer spending is in trouble.
      https://www.tradingview.com/x/8mvjBcrg/
      https://www.tradingview.com/x/90dD86yO/

    • These are just a small sample (about 5%) of all the data and charts that composed of the weight of evidence i’m talking about. Showing all will result in a 10,000 words post. Are you gonna pay me for that effort?

    • I was running through a lot of charts and while technically I see what you mean, I think that we are vary late cycle. Indeed a lot of economic data is either at long term highs or is deteriorating (Housing market). Plus with the fed stopping rate hikes, it looks like we are close to the end of this business cycle. However I recognise that it is…[Read more]

      • That late cycle theory is wearing thin after 5 years of usage. Australia’s last recession is 26 years ago.
        .
        Once again, as i said many times before, while there’s a correlation between the economy and the market, they’re far from simple and clear. I have made many comments because about this, and i won’t say any more on the subject. You can read…[Read more]

        • There’re 2 approaches to trading / investing.
          .
          1st Approach
          ===========
          You tell the market what it should do. You can give a long list of reasons why it should collapse. I have seen somebody in the trading room did just that in Jan this year. He listed 30 reasons why market should roll over. I don’t know if those reasons are valid or not, i…[Read more]

          • Because Mr. Market is my boss, whatever he says, i replied “yes sir, yes sir”. As for Ms Economy, i don’t give a hoot about it because she’s not the boss of mine.
            .
            Know who’s the boss. Don’t kiss the wrong ass.
            .
            The trick is in the listening skill, which is called TA.

            • I appreciate your view and I think it is the best way to play things. But the way I see it is that if the economy slows down then there is less money to throw in to the stock market, indeed less wealth is produced that can be used. So for my the risk reward is not favorable for a rise, I prefer to play the risk reward game. The market is a sum of…[Read more]

              • Q4 2018 saw the largest fund outflow in the history of stock market both in dollar terms as well as relative or percentage term. There’s some reversal of flow in the last 5 months, but only showed up as a blip. Same thing happened to hedge fund’s percentage of equity holding, the lowest for many decades.
                .
                I can’t imagine the rally stock market…[Read more]

            • I think my only comment here is that I will continue to watch the tape as best I can. I don’t like the ratios or correlations beyond mild interest because they look like they work until they don’t. As I said before, I won’t be chasing *indices* higher at this point mainly because there is no data up here that can give clues. I will however go long…[Read more]

              • No one indicator / ratio chart / chart pattern / etc would be infallible. It’s the weight of the evidence, which i keep mentioning.
                .
                As i said, what i show here is less than 10% of the weight of evidence that we’re at the start of a bull market.
                .
                Since you dun see the other 90%, i don’t blame your skepticism. Nor am i trying to convince you one…[Read more]

              • I don’t know what you mean when you said “talking my book”. If that implies ramping an index, i don’t see how it’s even possible given the small number of members in this forum.
                .
                Even with large number, can’t see everyone is agreeing with me.
                .
                In short, highly improbable.
                .
                If i’m a high influential name on social media like Twitter with 50,000…[Read more]

            • As human being, none of us are capable of digesting all the data / variable / conditions that could influence the stock market. Thinking we can is arrogance. But fortunately, prices capture everything that impacts the stock market. And we have the tool to do so, it’s called TA. Not the perfect tool (there’s none), but the best we have.

              • None of my comments were aimed at you Francis, you are clearly a skilled operator and you react when asked. My comments were more at others who make generic comments with no substance, my theory for the motivation for this type of behaviour was potentially people talking their book. I enjoy your contributions. Let’s see what this week brings!

  • FrancisQ posted a new activity comment 2 weeks, 1 day ago

    On last Thursday, when QQQ and SPY put in a red candle, nobody noticed that the more “bearish” indexes like IWM, XLF, IYT, etc were all green. And they followed through on Friday.

  • FrancisQ posted a new activity comment 2 weeks, 2 days ago

    Agree. In bull market, you get better returns trading setup of individual stocks. Especially after such move.
    .
    Buy dips, sell rips.
    Rinse and repeat.
    .
    My new mantra.

    • if i ever create an ipo, im gonna call it DIP. that way, when traders hear to buy the dip, they will buy my stock.

    • what is the ticker for that “mantra” stock? SAY or OHM? RPET?

  • FrancisQ posted a new activity comment 2 weeks, 2 days ago

    DRYS’ close looks interesting, getting me all excited…i hope it isn’t false hope…

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