It looks like commercial traders (i.e.- the “smart” money) are also looking for an imminent reversal in the nearly parabolic rise in the US Dollar. Over the weekend, a couple of fellow traders had forwarded this article from McClellan Financial Publications which discusses the extreme high net short interest amongst commercial traders. As Tom McClellan states, although often early (like I believe that I have been on the most recent long positioning in gold, miners & select commodities) the commercial traders are almost always proved correct when positioning for major reversals.
Please keep in mind that nothing in trading is 100% and parabolic moves can often last longer than most expect (or can afford, if positioning in advance of the reversal). Therefore, any bets against the $USD or long dollar sensitive securities such as gold & commodities, should be considered aggressive, counter-trend trades at this time. Aggressive/anticipatory traders might continue to use a scale-in strategy to gold, silver, & the related mining stocks as well as select commodities while more conventional or risk-averse traders or investors might opt to wait for decent technical evidence of a likely trend reversal before establishing a position into dollar sensitive securities.
click here to read Commercials Betting On Big Dollar Downturn by Tom McClellan