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GLD Testing Support + GDX Update

Not only are these two levels (120.28 & 119.16) decent price support, they are also the 50 &61.8% Fibonacci retracements of the most recent rally in GLD. Should 120.25 go, GLD will likely continue down to at least the 119.15 area/61.8% Fib (60-minute chart):

GLD 60-minute June 23rd

GLD 60-minute June 23rd

The bigger picture for gold points to the likelihood of another thrust back down towards the 116-114 area following this second, consecutive divergent high (daily chart):

GLD daily June 23rd

GLD daily June 23rd

Should these divergences play out for another significant correction in GLD, such as the nearly 7% drop last month, then the gold mining stocks will almost certainly follow suit by matching or exceeding their recent 16% correction in May. I posted this 1-minute chart of GLD vs. GDX in the trading room earlier today highlighting the fact that GDX has climbed nearly 2% over the last couple of trading sessions despite the fact that GLD has moved lower. As such, one or the other is likely to play catch-up to the other next week.

GLD vs. GDX 1 minute June 23rd

GLD vs. GDX 1 minute June 23rd

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Jun 23, 2016 2:01pm|Categories: Gold & Commodities|Tags: , , |4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Ruben June 23, 2016 2:45 pm at 2:45 pm

    Randy after hours trading closes at 8:00 pm you think wise idea to see whats going on and maybe add a short position at least seeing how the first pool of numbers play out?

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    • rsotc June 23, 2016 3:24 pm at 3:24 pm

      At first I started to reply that, no, I wouldn’t add a short position in front of the vote but with further thought, assuming that one was flat (in cash) or long, then a modest, starter short position does seem objective in front of the vote as long as you’re willing to give it some room on the stops in order to account for what will likely be increased volatility tomorrow & into Monday.

      I view this whole Brexit thing similar to one of the more important FOMC meetings (not those where the odds for a change is rates is near zero). Starting tonight with the futures market & overseas trading, there is a very good chance of sharp, erratic price swings. Before adding too much exposure to the market it would be best to let the dust settle on this whole Brexit thing which will probably not happen until late Monday or possible Tuesday of next week (and that assumes the expected REMAIN vote as the markets would likely be much more erratic throughout next week on a surprise LEAVE vote.

      To clarify on your question, are you referring to adding a short position before the AH session closes? And if so, then I assume that you mean an ETF or stock? Futures would allow to to stop out or close out the position overnight but I don’t advise that for the primary reason that you won’t be able to beat the reactions to the news in the polls as the futures (or stocks in AH & pre-market) will immediately move sharply higher or lower. I guess what I’m trying to say is that you either take a swing position, set your stops & profit targets & then sit tight or just wait until the dust has settled next week before establishing any new positions.

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      • Ruben June 23, 2016 6:11 pm at 6:11 pm

        thank you.

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        • rsotc June 23, 2016 11:26 pm at 11:26 pm

          Anytime Ruben. It was a timely & very valid question. Best of luck if you took some shorts. Either way, I’ll step up my updates tomorrow & into the weekend but just keep in mind that ANYTHING can still happen tonight & over the next few days. Big gains can become much bigger or they can evaporate faster than one could image during events like this. Just remember to keep emotions in check & if the charts continue to play out for the short trades, we can either let them ride & go for the big gains or identify some near-term targets & take the quick buck & run but if the vote turns out to be STAY… or LEAVE but the CB’s pull out some nuclear rabbit out of their hats to save the day, stops are a must. G-luck!

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