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GDX NUGT Short Trading Plan (video)

My reply to an inquiry from a member of the site as to my trading plan on the NUGT (3x Bullish Gold Miners ETF) short trade that I posted taking in trading room yesterday. No need to watch this video if you don't have any position or interest the miners today as other than some near-term support/resistance/target levels, as there aren't any new developments that weren't already discussed in the recent video coverage of the $USD, gold, silver & GDX.


I had also just wrapped up a similar video on the QQQ, including various support & resistance levels which might provide objective entries or add-ons to a short position. Unfortunately that video crashed while being processed. So far I've been unable to recover so I'll either compose a new video or post some static charts & notes asap. Bottom line is that the move down in leading index, QQQ, is so far playing out as expected which helps to validate the near & intermediate-term bearish case that I've been making recently. Bottom line: For the near-term, bounces off support such as yesterday's tag of the 104.90 support on QQQ, are likely to only produce fleeting bounces with bounces back to resistance (or any breaks of those support levels) as objective areas levels to add short exposure and/or reduce long exposure.

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May 3, 2016 3:44pm|Categories: Gold & Commodities, Unofficial Short Ideas|Tags: , |12 Comments

12 Comments

  1. pangblood May 4, 2016 10:35 am at 10:35 am

    @rsotc
    Randy, it appears the first gap as u mentioned at 24.25 has been taken out, gold is slight up vs yesterday’s close whilst GDX is down. Are you still looking for a pullback of GDX to test the highs?

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    • rsotc May 4, 2016 11:27 am at 11:27 am

      @pangblood – Could you clarify what you mean by “Are you still looking for a pullback of GDX to test the highs?” Did you mean test the top of the late Feb – early April trading range? A pullback to test the highs is contradictory. Did you mean a bounce to test the high?

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  2. pangblood May 4, 2016 10:36 am at 10:36 am

    I want to initiate a swing position, but I’m concerned about this pullback

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  3. pangblood May 4, 2016 11:03 am at 11:03 am

    I’ll just use a tight stop, thanks for the video, although I always prefer static posts (more concise, easy to look at instead of scrolling through the video), not to mention static posts can be written in a timely fashion (like this video was done rendering when market closed, and by the time we finished watched it, market was already closed). Also the videos, whilst good for adverstising, encourages people to not subscribe to your membership, just some feedback
    And I like what you said about when theres a meltdown, there won’t be anywhere to hide. Well said, one of the miners Rangold reported really crappy earnings

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  4. pangblood May 4, 2016 11:23 am at 11:23 am

    @rsotc
    And I think for every video you should mention (advertise) the gold subscription maybe talk about rightsideofthechart.com “where you can find my latest trade ideas and analysis”
    a good idea would be to make a quick 10 second advertising video showcasing your website/trade ideas etc, and attach that to the end of every video you post. TBH I discovered you thru your youtube videos. Also I feel like your giving away too much for free through youtube videos, leaves no incentive to subscribe (you posted 9 videos in the past week)

    just some marketing feedback

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    • rsotc May 4, 2016 11:34 am at 11:34 am

      I could definitely spend some time doing a better job of marketing and I very much appreciate & agree with your suggestion. For now, marketing will have to take a backseat to focusing on the markets and a few other programming items that I have on my list. Thanks again for the suggestion though & please keep them coming.
      Regarding the videos & that whole “why buy the cow when you are getting the milk for free..” thing, just as with the front page commentary with static charts, only vidoos general market, sector & commodity analysis and some unofficial trade ideas are published as public videos on the YouTube channel. If I do a video on any any official trade ideas or select market, sector or commodity analysis that is reserved for members, those videos will not be published as public, hence, the YouTube followers will not receive notifications when they are published.

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  5. pangblood May 4, 2016 11:33 am at 11:33 am

    @rsotc
    at around 3:27 in the video, you were talking about a bounce to 25.49, that’s the thing I was concerned about

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    • rsotc May 4, 2016 11:41 am at 11:41 am

      @pangblood – Ok, thanks for clarifying. I would have welcomed a bounce up to as high as the 25.49 area to add to my position but would have been concerned if we went any higher, especially all the way back to the recent highs. As it turns out, the more bearish of the two scenarios played out & at this point, I think the odds for a bounce back to anywhere near the recent highs anytime soon are very low. GDX went up nearly vertical & more often than not, near-vertical, extremely overbought rips are followed by nearly equal near-vertical dips or corrections. Not that I expect all the gains off the Jan lows to be wiped out, just in the very near-term I think that GDX will now likely start moving impulsively lower for the next few sessions with little if any reactions off support levels, at least until we approach the top of that recent sideways trading range.

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  6. pangblood May 4, 2016 11:52 am at 11:52 am

    @rsotc
    So shorting intraday GDX rallies is the strategy for now, thanks
    Oh I forgot to mention that your videos are very educational, so thats a very nice plus

    Thanks Randy

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  7. rsotc May 4, 2016 12:37 pm at 12:37 pm

    Thanks @pangblood. Yes, although the R/R diminishes with each tick lower & wasn’t as attractive as it was on a GDX short the other day, it does appear to me that the miners still have at least another 5.3% downside & quite likely another 10% downside in the coming days/weeks so yes, I think shorting the rips, especially those into resistance, still offers an objective entry for now.FYI -GDX is currently trading just above gap support (23.30-23.40ish) with the next decent support/target coming in around 22.45-22.40 and then 21.50-21.30. G-luck & don’t get complacent with your stops as we all know how damaging being on the wrong side of a GDX, NUGT or DUST trade can be.

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  8. pangblood May 6, 2016 8:46 am at 8:46 am

    @rsotc
    Well… really bad job report. I guess holding through this isn’t my cup of tea, lost money every single time, but still do it. DUST position deep underwater, are you adding to you NUGT short here?

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    • rsotc May 6, 2016 8:53 am at 8:53 am

      Nope.I’m fine with my current position size in NUGT, probably won’t add anymore.

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