GDX Final Price Target Hit for a Quick 6.4% Gain

The GDX (Gold Miners ETF) swing trade has hit the final target, T2 at 22.92, for a quick 2-day gain of 6.4% (or ~20% for NUGT). Consider booking profits or raising stops if holding out for additional gains as the potential for a more powerful rally in the gold mining sector was recently made in the February 11th GDX, Gold & US Dollar Technical Analysis video. As this was the final target for this swing trade, GDX will now be moved to the Completed Trades archives. Previous & updated 60-minute charts:

click on first chart to expand, then click on the right of each expanded chart to advance to the next chart

Feb 14, 2018 10:48am|Categories: Completed Trades - Long, Gold & Commodities|Tags: |2 Comments


  1. barr105 February 15, 2018 4:25 pm at 4:25 pm

    Hi there:
    I see a hammer formation for GDX at close (looking at 6 month period daily chart).
    Bought March 16 put contracts,, strike $23.00 to offset downside on my long GDX position. (GDX trading at $23 +/- at the time)
    I find that “1” Put contract may not provide enough insurance for “100” shares long, if the stock long share goes down, so I doubled that to 2 put contracts for every long share. I wonder if that insurance policy strategy works?
    Thank You


    • rsotc February 15, 2018 7:19 pm at 7:19 pm

      Each put contract should give you the right to sell 100 shares of GDX at 23.00 if the stock drops below that price so 1 put contract should have provided you a direct/full hedge for a 100 share position in GDX. By owning 2 puts, if you own 100 shares long, then you are over-hedged.

      As far as whether that strategy, or any other options + shares strategy works depends on several variables. For example, if GDX trades sideways for the next month & then start to rally or move lower, your puts will have expired worthless so you would have lost what you paid for them & at that point, you are no longer hedged.

      If GDX falls from here (closed at 22.99 today), your puts “should” gain in value and if you are long 2 puts against a long position of 100 shares, then your losses on the shares “should” be offset & then some by the gains on the puts. I put “should” in parentheses because there are a lot of moving parts to options, one in particular in this case being the theta or time decay as those start to approach expiration over the next 4 weeks.

      Also keep in mind that although it has come back in, the VIX is still above the upper-end of its trading rand over the last year + which means that the volatility premium in the puts you bought was probably fatter than usual so if volatility continues to fall, that volatility premium, in addition to the theta decay, is likely to melt away the value of those puts, all other thing (i.e.- strike price vs. current price) being equal. Again, lots of moving parts to options & I am far from an expert. While I do trade options occasionally, I prefer trading individual stocks, ETFs & futures.

      That hammer on the GDX daily was a result of it running up to the top of the resistance zone where T1 was set above, followed by what I often refer to as “the initial reaction Iin this case a pullback) when a resistance level is first hit. GDX hit the top of that zone & immediately pulled back, followed by a bounce & second test of that R zone where GDX close today. There may certainly be more upside to come in the miners but I set that final target at the level where I believed (at entry on the trade) and still do that the risk/reward to being long is no longer clearly favorable. As such, I find it easier & more efficient (cost wise & mentally) to just close the trade & then sit back & wait for the objective entry & high-probability setup in GDX, long or short.

      Bottom line is that I am not very clear on where GDX goes over the next few weeks but assuming that you paid a decent price (i.e.- minimal premium over the strike price) on those options then I think that at worse, your loss potential over the next month (until expiration of those puts) is minimal & you could even profit nicely if GDX were to drop sharply. I’ll study the charts of gold, GDX & the US Dollar tonight & share my thoughts tomorrow morning before I leave town for the weekend. Best of luck on that trade & sorry for such a long-winded answer to a short question.


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