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ACBFF Trade Update + Raising Stops

With a gain of 340% in less than 3 months from entry, coupled with fact that ACBFF (Aurora Cannabis Inc) is starting to form potential divergences on the daily time frame, I may soon revise the sole & final target of 3.00 for the Active Long-Term Trade. I am also raising stops once again, in order to protect profits. The new suggested stop will be on any move below 1.42. Until & unless posted otherwise in advance of ACBFF reaching the 3.00 level, that remains the final target at this time.

ACBFF daily Nov 16th

ACBFF daily Nov 16th

The chart below was posted in the trading room yesterday, highlighting the breakout above the downtrend line which had contained all advances on the recent consolidation/bull-flagging price action in recent weeks. That was healthy price action for Aurora which helped to alleviate the overbought conditions from the strong advance off the mid-2016 lows & could very likely propel the stock well beyond the 3.00 level. As such, longer-term investors could certainly opt to just continue to periodically raise stops & while letting the profits run in ACBFF & while my current plan is to officially close this trade at or possibly below 3.00, assuming it gets there soon, one other option would be to book profits on all gains while letting the amount of the initial position ride. More updates on ACBFF as well as the unofficial marijuana trade ideas to follow soon.

ACBFF daily Nov 15th

ACBFF daily Nov 15th

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9 Comments

  1. rsotc November 16, 2016 10:30 am at 10:30 am

    Rat-bastards seemed to have got wind of my 3.00 target with ACBFF just hitting 2.96 & reversing hard. Shame on me as I almost never place a price target on a round number. Damn thing dropped from 2.96 to 2.47 in 6 minutes, a 16.6% pullback. They are starting to bid it back up now so I’m going to set an order to unload some shares in the low 2.90’s, although planning on keeping a core position for a L/T hold. Still thinking they will take it above 3.00 soon, probably today or tomorrow in which case I’ll peel off some more shares but still keep a core holding.

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  2. retireat60 November 16, 2016 11:16 am at 11:16 am

    luv your candor, good to know somebody as level headed as you gets frustrated with the games too!

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    • rsotc November 16, 2016 11:44 am at 11:44 am

      Thx retireat60. Actually, my derogatory comments weren’t directed at any group or subset of traders in particular,as I was jokingly referring to ‘the rat-bastards’ as anyone with the foresight to book profits just shy of the 3.00 round number. My frustration was actually with myself, as I had somewhat randomly (although with an educated guesstimate) picked the 3.00 long-term target back when ACBFF was still a penny stock but I should have zeroed that target in to account for the fact that 3.00 is a round number that a good deal of eyes may have been targeting. Any time everyone is looking for a stock or index to hit a round number, it usually falls just shy or blasts right through it, rarely giving the masses the price they were looking for. As such, 2.94 -2.95 would have been a much better placed profit target than 3.00.

      As such, I should have modified the official target to slightly below 3.00 early today & at the very least, when I posted the update/comment above stating that I was modifying my own personal target to sell on the next push back into the low 2.90’s, which so far, I was fortunately enough to do & get filled from 1-3 cents below the peak of that second thrust up earlier today which fell just shy of that previous 2.96 high (ACBFF hit 2.95 after the pullback & next rally back up towards the first reaction high). ACBFF at 2.40 now.

      Glad that I was able to lighten up but again, upset with myself that I didn’t suggest the same exit for the official trade although 3.00 & very likely much more is still very much a likelihood for ACBFF in the coming days, weeks or months, even if the stock experiences a healthy pullback first.

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      • retireat60 November 16, 2016 1:03 pm at 1:03 pm

        i understand completely, glad you made out well on this one.

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  3. motocyclin33 November 16, 2016 1:50 pm at 1:50 pm

    Randy, after the break of the trendline where do you think it might head to short term. Will it be an ab=cd pattern to 3.2 ? thanks Bib

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    • rsotc November 16, 2016 3:35 pm at 3:35 pm

      Really hard to say if yesterday’s breakout above that downtrend line will result in an ABC pattern, with yesterday’s & today’s earlier rally being the A wave up, today’s subsequent sell-off being the B-down with one more C-wave up to take the stock above 3.00 (which it would if that is the case as wave C should clear the top of A, thereby quite possibly bring ACBFF to around that 3.20 level that you mention).
      My best guess is that yes, we will get one more thrust up above 3.00 before those negative divergences that are forming on the daily time frame begin to manifest in the form of a correction that could last for weeks or possibly month but it’s really hard to say with the stock trading at all-time highs today without any price history at these levels to help formulate a decent read on things although I can say that the recent consolidation in ACBFF over the last 5-6 weeks looks to have built up enough energy to launch the stock above the 3.00 level & more than just a 1.5 day rally since the break above that downtrend line. Bottom line: I do favor one more thrust to new highs & can’t rule out a more sustained run that could take this stock to $4 or even $5 or more before any significant & lasting correction.

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  4. baller November 16, 2016 1:57 pm at 1:57 pm

    rsotc: From the available 32 stocks that deal with the cannabis “revolution” how did you pick ACBFF back in August?

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    • motocyclin33 November 16, 2016 2:11 pm at 2:11 pm

      due to the break out of the trendline. also just came across this a few days ago. what do you think?

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    • rsotc November 16, 2016 4:01 pm at 4:01 pm

      baller- ACBFF was one of about 2 dozen marijuana stocks on a watchlist that I had started building earlier in the year. I was first put on to the pot stocks when a member within the trading room ask my opinion on a couple of cannabis stocks earlier this year. My first reaction was to stay clear as they were penny stocks but after reviewing the charts, I was very impressed with how well those & some of the other pot stocks that I started looking into had been trading off the technicals (i.e.- breakouts above trendlines, support & resistance, chart patterns, etc..)

      From there, I did a Google search to find some more pot stocks, where most on my list came from one website. I started building my watchlist & ACBFF happened to have a very clear bullish pennant continuation pattern from which prices broke out of back in Aug. After doing some brief DD on the stock, it seemed that they had a legitimate business model, qualified management team & their stock was listed in 3 different countries which help to further legitimize the company compared to many of the other OTC penny stocks that simply had the word cannabis or marijuana in their name.

      Being bullish on the long-term growth prospects for the cannabis industry with the trend already clearly headed in the direction or more & more states & countries legalizing for both recreations & medical use long before the recent elections in the US, I figured that this trade met the criteria for both a swing trade (which we did from there for a very quick 47% gain, nailing the top when we sold & then recycling back in while nailing the lows on the pullback for another 55% gain shortly after that first swing trade. Those swing trades were mutually exclusive, although concurrent or overlapping with the Long-term Trade which was entered along with the first swing trade & then again posted as an objective add-on for the Long-term Trade (or a new entry, if not already long).

      Long-winded answer I know but this one, along with many of the unofficial pot stock trade ideas, has played so well off the technicals that it would make for an excellent example in a text book on TA. Best of all, the fundamental story was & still is there. I have this stock along with some of the other pot stocks in my kids’ college savings accounts & ACBFF might even be there when they go off to school in another 5 & 6 years. Funny thing is that I would hate for them to find out that their college tuition was partially paid for from the sale marijuana as they might feel compelled to pay back the favor some day. 😮

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