The primary scenarios for the SPY posted on Thursday on both the 5 minute & daily charts played out perfectly so far.  As per my last update, the cone of certainty on the next move in the market becomes a bit wider right now but fwiw, my updated scenario is outlined in the updated 5 minute chart below. As I type, prices are now sitting right between the long-standing T2 level & 50% fib retracement on the previously posted 2-hour SPY charts and as with all targets, I still favor a bounce off the initial tag of that level.

Although my preference is for a bounce to the 176.90-177 area, this market is only recently coming off extreme sentiment levels not seen in many years. With extreme bullish sentiment comes dangerously low short-interest levels which, giving the right conditions, can lead to very sharp & powerful downtrends as the usual amount of guaranteed buyers (short sellers MUST buy a stock at some point in order to close their open positions, unlike bullish traders who can simply stay in cash). As such, the potential for a much larger & very swift move lower becomes elevated with each support level where the buyers do not step in at this point.