The SPY is now approaching converging resistance levels (R3 & R4), an important line-in-the-sand for the bears as any solid & sustained break above that level will call the intermediate-term downtrend into jeopardy. My primary take is that this recent move higher in the markets has been a counter-trend bounce within a larger downtrend but if prices move (and close) much above the 167.50ish level, then not only with this downtrend line be taken out (bullish) but we will also likely see the recent bearish 20/50 ema cross undone with the 20 ema moving back above the 50 ema, proving that most recent confirmation of an intermediate-term trend was only a whipsaw or false sell signal.
Of course there are many other variables in determining both the trend and the risk/reward in the markets so neither of the two technical events, such they occur, should be taken as stand-alone buy signals. More so they are just two pieces, albeit important pieces, in a much larger puzzle. My plan is to add some more short exposure here with a plan to start reducing my overall short exposure should we get a solid & sustained move above the 167.50 level, again, preferable on a closing basis.