/NQ (Nasdaq 100 futures) is currently trading in my 16952-17356 support/target zone (FKA 17254-17792 target zone from earlier March contract) while at the deepest oversold reading in years. The yellow arrows show bounce targets/scenarios with a slightly favorable odds to my preferred bounce target shown with the solid arrows (higher bounce target, at this time, especially “once” the positive news on the tariffs and/or FOMC rate cut, actual or likely, occurs) with red arrow my least likely but still a measurable chance” scenario (all scenarios still taking /NQ to my near-term target) zone. The two previous daily charts (March 12th & April 4th) are followed by the updated daily chart (showing where we are in pre-market as of 8:41 am ET below.
NQ-daily-March-12th
NQ daily April 4th
NQ daily April 7th
Basically, this early pre-market session drop has taken /NQ down to just below that 17356 target/support & I’ve added a new nearby minor support level at 16952 (defined by previous reactions) which makes that a support zone (two or more support levels in close proximity).
I still believe that the R/R is no longer favorable for new short positions at this time, even if the market does continue down to my final near-term target zone before a tradable bounce (not my preferred scenario at this time but certainly decent/measurable odds). As posted above, my preferred scenario has the market rallying this week, likely starting today, and how far that rally goes will almost certainly depend on whether or not we get some positive headlines from on the fundamental perspective (e.g.- positive news on tariffs, Fed speak (or action) on rate cuts, etc..). Stay flexible & nimble (or in very light or in cash, if not sure what to do) as the only certainly lately has been uncertainty & as I’ve been saying for months now, the stock market could care less who is in office (Dem or Republican), it just doesn’t like uncertainty.