A downtrend is simply prices making a series of lower highs & lower lows which is clearly the case with the Nasdaq 100 since the June 9th high. The arrows on this 15 minute chart of QQQ show some of the key reaction highs & lows since that market leading index peaked nearly a month ago.
QQQ 15-minute July 7th
Each of the white horizontal lines below are set at some of the recent previous reaction highs. The downtrend remains intact for now although the bearish trend begins to be called into question as/if each of the previous reaction highs are taken out. QQQ is currently challenging the July 5th reaction high where a failure would be bearish & a break above bullish. However, I should clarify that a break above the previous reaction high, or even any of the recent reaction highs before that does not undo much of the more significant bearish technical developments that have occurred over the last month or so & I should stress that it’s not as simply as saying that “the downtrend is now over” if & when any of the recent reaction highs on this 15-minute chart are taken out. These are simply a few pieces in a much more complex & dynamically evolving picture of where the stock market is likely headed in the coming days, weeks & months.
On an administrative note, I will be returning home from vacation this weekend so market updates, trade ideas & commentary will resume as normal next week.