Q: Hi randy, What would you do if you had no short positions right now – wait a day and see, or take shorts home tonight. I managed to sell almost all my shorts thios morning around 11:30, so caught it pretty well. But now I have no positions!
A: My best guess is that we’re going to visit the 8-24 lows very soon but I wouldn’t load the boat short right now. This would certainly be an objective area to add back some or all of the short exposure that you booked profits on earlier. 104.70 looks like pretty decent resistance on the Q’s but we might not get there as the Q’s (so far) have failed on an attempt to break above a descending channel comparable to the one that I recently posted on the $SPX.
Here’s my 15 minute chart of QQQ. My reasoning for not getting too aggressively short here is the positive divergence & oversold reading in place at today’s lows. With that being said, all of my short-term, intermediate-term & even some long-term indicators remain solidly bearish (i.e- we are in a downtrend). Trading in a downtrend is just like trading in an uptrend in reverse whereas bullish pattern breakouts, divergences, pullbacks to support, etc… tend to have a much higher failure rate, just as bearish chart pattern breakouts, shorting at resistance, etc… tend to fail during uptrends.
note: Those comments are generically/hypothetically speaking as to what I might do in a similar situation based on my own unique trading style & objectives. My reply does not constitute any specific trading advice, only what I might do at this time had I closed out all my short positions near the lows earlier today. Once again, I am sharing my replies to comments & questions as a more efficient way of communicating my thoughts on the market until post comments & the new trading forum is rolled out.
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