V was posted as a potential short a while back at the top of this wedge, along with a suggestion of only shorting a 1/2 position while waiting for prices to break below the bottom of the wedge before adding the second lot. I also pointed out a potential evening star candlestick reversal pattern on Jan 10th, which so far seems to be playing out. V is now once again offering an objective short entry or add-on to an existing position here as it breaks below this long-term uptrend line. V, along with it’s peer MA, remains one of the more attractive looking swing shorts IMO.
For those wondering why the short trade ideas continue to outpace the long trade ideas by a fair margin lately, please realize that regardless of the apparent bullet-proof resiliency of the market lately, nothing has changed from a longer-term technical or fundamental perspective to alter my overall longer-term bearish outlook on the market. I continue to maintain that the R/R (risk vs. reward) over the foreseeable future (weeks to months) remains to downside. The be very clear on what that means, let me explain it this way: I believe that the odds that the next 10% move in the broad market from current levels favors the downside (vs. the upside) about 4:1. In other words, the with the $SPX currently trading at 1518, I’d would say the odds are 4 times greater that we see 1366 before we see 1670. In addition, although the momentum has clearly been to the upside, it has become increasingly difficult to find objective long setups (objective meaning a very good R/R profile). However, as I continually comb through the charts, I am finding an increasing number of attractive longer-term (swing) short trade candidates. As always, I will continue to strive to post the best looking trade ideas, both long and short, regardless of my current market bias.