NUGT GDX Closes Within 4 Cents Of Final Near-term Price Target

GDX (gold miners ETF) came within a mere 4 cents of hitting the final target of 15.22 today, printing a high of 15.18 shortly before the close. Longer-term investors might consider raising stops while the NUGT (3x long gold miners ETF) trade will be completed on any print at or above 15.22 on GDX.

GDX 60 minute 2 Oct 5th

GDX 60 minute 2 Oct 5th


I had mentioned the possibility of extending additional price targets but with the top of the massive July 17th-20th gap not far overhead (best viewed on the daily chart), the odds for at least 10% pullback in NUGT are too high to justify remaining long or riding out a pullback, especially due to the fact that this was intended as a quick, uni-directional trade, hence the reason for using NUGT, as this 3x is highly prone to price decay in periods other than uni-directional moves (in the right direction, meaning straight up).

Should the gold mining sector gap up tomorrow, this trade will be consider completed at the greater of T2 or the opening price, if higher, as any standing sell limit orders would be filled at or immediately after the open. I would also suggest setting any sell limit orders to allow to be filled outside of regular trading hours as it is not uncommon to hit a profit target in the pre-market or after-hours session, only to see the stock reverse before the opening bell & not look back.

Longer-term traders wishing to ride out any pullbacks might consider a stop anywhere from slightly below Friday's high (in GDX) of 14.50 to as low as  14.10, which lies below horizontal support that comes in around 14.23 (best viewed on the 5-minute time frame).

The gold mining stocks often overshoot resistance levels on the upside as well as support levels on the downside due to the extreme velocity in which the sector moves at times. I refer to this as a "momentum overshoot" and have learned to almost expect it when trading the miners. On the flip-side, attracting a large number of momentum traders that are viewing the same charts we all are, it's not uncommon to see the sellers step in just before resistance (especially during a sucker's rally) or step in to buy before support is hit. Hence, the reason that my sell limit orders (price targets) are set slightly below the actual resistance levels when long & my buy-to-cover limit orders are set slightly above support when short (ditto for buying long off support).

2017-03-08T21:20:14+00:00 Oct 5, 2015 8:57pm|Categories: Completed Trades - Long, Gold & Commodities|Tags: , , |Comments Off on NUGT GDX Closes Within 4 Cents Of Final Near-term Price Target